The market has NO FEAR. Extremely little risk priced for the FOMC meeting.
Chart shows SPX 1 week implied volatility skew within one week of FOMC meetings. Source: TME, Nomura
EURCHF tumbled today as the Swiss Franc saw demand ahead of The Fed and ECB.
The swissy is the strongest vs the euro since Sept 2022 (with the biggest strengthening of CHF vs EUR since January today)... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Most Expensive Euro on Record Has Traders Braced for Declines
As the Nominal effective exchange rate reached an all-time high, a dovish message from ECB this week can add pressure on the euro. Source: Bloomberg
A Pivotal Week for Central Bank's
Source: Bloomberg
FED QT continues w/balance sheet dropped by $22.4bn past week.
It is 6th week in a row that total assets shrink. Fed more than leveled the increase in the wake of the banking crisis from March. Fed balance sheet now equal to 31% of US's GDP vs #ECB's 53%, SNB's 121%, BoJ's 128%. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
M2 money supply has declined at the fastest rate ever recorded since the Fed began collecting data in 1959
Probably has helped cool inflation but could it usher in a new set of problems? Source: Fred, Barchart
This didn't do the headlines but the fact is that Trade-weighted Euro reached a new all-time high this week
Source: Bloomberg
The NASDAQ (in yellow) has been massively decoupling from the FED balance sheet (in purple)
Source: The Market Ear, Refinitiv
