Syz the moment

Is it the most dovish central bank around? Despite roughly 10% inflation, The National Bank of Poland cut rates by 75bp to 6%, versus expectations of a 25bp cut. - Poland’s central bank delivered a surprisingly steep interest rate cut in a bid to boost a slowing economy less than six weeks before a tightly-contested election, weakening the zloty and hammering banking stocks. - The decision to lower the benchmark rate by three quarters of a percentage point — the most since the fallout from the great financial crisis in 2009 — to 6% caught economists off guard. Most had predicted a quarter point reduction. - The decision takes on a political dimension coming so close to the Oct. 15 election and has left investors guessing at the next move, with some predicting that the easing cycle has ended as soon as it began. Source: Bloomberg

FACTS: The overall tone of Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was relatively hawkish but not as hawkish as some feared on the back of recent strong data. It was also less hawkish than last year. The main message is that The Fed is definitely on hold but leaning on a more hawkish stance should data don’t show more progress in inflation / growth cooling down. OUR TAKE: The big event is now behind us, and we didn’t learn anything new. Powell believes that monetary policy is tight, but he opens the door to an even tighter one. With regards to macro data, they are going into the right direction but there is a risk of further upside, i.e interest rates path remains very data dependent which means that markets will now turn its attention to PCE inflation and US jobs data (next week). The Fed is likely to stay nervous as long as they see evidence of a serious break in job growth below the 200K pace. We are not there yet, which means that in the coming weeks, we will likely see macro volatility leading to market volatility. Our view remains that central bankers want first and foremost to avoid the big mistake (rather than targeting a pre-defined target). In the previous decade, central bankers wanted to avoid the deflation trap, hence the over-printing. This time, they want to avoid the risk of another round of inflation. Hence the temptation of over-tightening. MARKET REACTION: Rate-hike expectations initially moved lower but then reverted higher after investors actually read and listened to his speech. 2Y yields are back to July highs and equity markets are whipsawing.

What will it be when Jay is done? Source: Jim Bianco

Source: Fund Strat thru Carl Quintanilla

Way ahead of Street consensus and with a clear acceleration since early August...

Source: Markets & Mayhem, Bloomberg

They said that on Friday, China’s central bank and financial regulators met with bank executives and told lenders again to boost loans to support a recovery, adding to signs of heightened concern from policymakers about the deteriorating economic outlook. Authorities also urged for adjustments and an optimization of policies for home mortgages at the meeting on Friday, according to a statement from the People’s Bank of China on Sunday, without elaborating on the housing initiatives. China is expected to make the biggest cuts this year to two of its core lending rates as pressure mounts on policymakers and banks to reverse slowing momentum and revive flagging demand in the world’s second-biggest economy.

Overnight, the Chinese central bank set its yuan fixing at 7.2006 per dollar compared to the average estimate of 7.3047. The gap - an unprecedented 1,041 pips - was the largest gap to estimates since the poll was initiated in 2018. Source: Bloomberg, zerohedge