Fed Expected to Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points After Inflation Data; Bitcoin Remains Stable
U.S. inflation came in as expected, increasing the likelihood of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut, with market expectations rising to 83%. A 50 basis point cut is now only 17% likely. The bond market now expects a 25 bps Fed rate cut this month, not 50 bps. The 2-year yield hit 3.69%, and the hashtag#Fed's held rates at 5.25%-5.5% since July 2023. Investors eye 140 bps in cuts by Jan '25. Source: Luc Sternberg, coinoptix, Bloomberg
Morgan Stanley's CIO Michael Wilson says "yen carry trade risk lingers for US stocks"
Source: Bloomberg
Those calling for a 50 bps rate cut next week should take a look back at January 2001 & September 2007 when the Fed started cutting cycles with a 50 bps move
If the Fed feels the need to go big because of a weakening economy, that's not bullish. Source: Charlie Bilello
‼️THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED IN AT LEAST 35 YEARS‼️
The spread between the 2-year US government bonds and Fed's rates FELL to -1.686%, the most in over 3 decades. In other words, bond market expects the Fed to cut BIG in the next months. Question: Is the bond market too dovish? Or is the Fed too much behind the curve? Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
Ahead of ECB meeting, we got some mixed messages about the central bank speed and extent of rates cuts - see below.
Meanwhile, the market see quarterly ECB rate cuts - see chart below. - European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus told Econostream Media that he saw a “clear case” for an interest rate cut in September but regarded the potential for another one in October was “quite unlikely.” - Executive Board member Piero Cipollone told France’s Le Monde newspaper that recent economic data so far had confirmed that inflation was slowing, giving scope for the ECB to lower borrowing costs. “There is a real risk that our stance could become too restrictive and harm the economy”. - However, Bundesbank’s Joachim Nagel continued to warn about premature easing, given elevated wage growth and services inflation, in an interview with the Faz newspaper. Source: Bloomberg, T Rowe
BREAKING: Global net gold purchases by central banks reached 483 tonnes in the first half of 2024, the most on record.
This is 5% higher than the previous record of 460 tonnes set in the first half of 2023. In Q2 2024, central banks bought 183 tonnes of gold, marking a 6% year-over-year increase. On the other hand, this was 39% lower than the 300 tonnes of purchases seen in Q1. The largest buyers were the National Bank of Poland, the Reserve Bank of India, and the Central Bank of Turkey. Why are central banks stocking up on gold? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Now that the Fed has given the "all clear" for cuts, the global easing cycle that is likely to gather force
Between 50 - 100 bps in cuts are priced for most central banks across advanced economies for this year alone. Source: Robin Brooks
What would a central bank rather own?
Source: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
