The Fed did almost no QT in the last 3 weeks
As highlighted by Tavi Costa, this was the smallest change in their balance sheet since the regional bank crisis in March 2023. Source: Bloomberg, Crescat Capital
Interesting FT article highlighting the improvement of global liquidity (contributor -> Cross Border Capital as contributor)
Flows of global liquidity accelerated higher into early 2024, expanding by 9 per cent at an annual rate from September, led by strong increases in Japan and China In 2024, we expect greater liquidity support from central banks as more policymakers turn towards monetary policy easing. Aside from the Fed, the People’s Bank of China is the obvious central bank to watch as it already contributed almost one-fifth of the total increase in global liquidity last year.
The market is at the same level as 1960 when adjusted for M2 money supply
Source: Game of Trades
The US Money Supply decreased by 2% in 2023, the largest annual decline on record with data going back to 1959
This was the second straight annual decline which followed the record 40% expansion in the money supply in 2020-21. Source: Charlie Bilello
The key role played by central banks liquidity, as highlighted by Matt King
Many seem surprised by the new record highs in the S&P, given an ambiguous outlook and a backdrop of supposedly tight rates. They are a lot less surprising when you consider that central banks' balance sheet policy has been remarkably easy. Over the past 14 months, the Fed alone has added nearly $500bn, and global central banks over $1.25tn, in liquidity. Source: BofA
It's official: markets are no longer expecting a FED rate cut in March 2024.
There's still a ~42% chance of rate cuts beginning in March, but this is a major shift in expectations. Just two weeks ago, markets saw a 90% chance of rate cuts beginning in March. Odds of rate cuts beginning at next week's Fed meeting are now down to ~2%. We are still seeing ~150 bps of interest rate cuts priced-in to futures. But, Fed pivot hopes are slowly pulling back. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The S&P 500 is now 11% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022. $SPX
Source: Charlie Bilello
U.S. Banks are facing unrealized losses of roughly $685 billion. They are desperately hoping the Federal Reserve will cut rates sooner rather than later.
Source: Barchart, FDIC
