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12 Apr 2024

The S&P 500's performance has been truly outstanding this year.

The index is up 9% year to date which is more than DOUBLE the average YTD return in an election year. In the past, the median return during a US presidential election year was about 11%. There are still several months until the presidential election but the index is on track to significantly exceed its historical performance. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

4 Mar 2024

Another damming poll for Biden: With 8 mths left until Nov election, Joe Biden’s 43% support lags behind Donald Trump’s 48% in the national survey of registered voters

The share of voters who strongly disapprove of President Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47%, higher than at any point in his presidency. The betting markets are now also backing Trump. PredictIt has him 6%-pts ahead. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

12 Feb 2024

In an US election year, the spread between “Job Creation” and job “approval rating on the economy” has NEVER been wider...

Source: Mohamed A. El-Erian

2 Feb 2024

During the election year, the averages tell us that it's going to be sideways to lower for the next 2 months...

Source: Grant Hawkridge

1 Feb 2024

In France, 3 out of the 4 favorite political leaders are from the far right...

1) Marine Le Pen (RN) 40%; 3) Jordan Bardella (RN) 37%; and 4) Marion Marechal Le Pen (Reconquête) 29%. Source: Le Figaro Verian - EPOKA / February poll


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