Some Trump trades really going for the extreme...
Russell futures vs the 10 year trading with a gap not seen in ages. Source: The Market Ear
Goldman has some potential reaction functions:
* Trump w/ Republican Sweep = 25% probability; S&P +3% * Trump w/ Divided Government = 30% probability; S&P +1.5% " Harris w/ Democratic Sweep = 5% probability; S&P -3% * Harris w/ Divided Government = 40% probability; S&P -1.5% Source: Carl Quintanilla on X, Goldman Sachs
$SPY Price Action Around Elections
In the last three election cycles, we've seen risk-off behaviour before the vote, followed by a strong rally in the weeks that follow. This year’s pattern is shaping up similarly, will history repeat? Source: TrendSpider @TrendSpider
Traders have built the largest long US Equity Futures position in history, now worth more than $300 Billion
Source: Stocktwits
Markets are pricing a large move on Nov. 6th
Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi
Semiconductor Stocks $SOXX have broken below the 200D moving average for only the 3rd time this year - Uh Oh
Source: Barchart
Last 3 years:
Gold +52% $QQQ +28% Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
The biggest driver of US equity demand has been buybacks, with $5.5T of purchases since 2000
Source: Markets & Mayhem, Bloomberg
