ARE US STOCKS OVERVALUED ⁉
☢ S&P 500 earnings yield FELL below the 10-year Treasury yield for the 1st time in 22 YEARS. ❗In other words, less risky (theoretically) 10-year Treasury is paying MORE than the S&P 500. ⚠This could imply lower than average forward returns for S&P 500. Source: The Daily Shot, Global Markets Investor
The US accounts for 74% of the MSCI world market capitalization, also a new all-time high.
Source: SG
Will the "Trump trade" start top fade in December?
Goldman Sachs' trader John Flood highlighted the 2016 analogs: the 3 trades depicted below (Domestic vs. International sales, Cyclicals vs. Defensives, Small-caps vs. Large-caps) skyrocketed in November 2016 but ALL started to fade in December 2016, going nowhere in Q1 2017. Could we see something similar in December and Q1 2025 ? Source: www.zerohedge.com, Goldman Sachs
BofA (Woodward):
"the net supply of US equities has shrunk -$473bn. The steady growth of buybacks, a key source of demand, has overwhelmed sources of new supply such as share issuance, IPOs, and stock-based compensation." So basically we have: 1) US stocks: shrinking supply, (ever-) increasing demand 2) US Treasuries: rising supply, decreasing demand Source: Neil Sethi
The king reports earnings exactly ONE WEEK from today. $NVDA
Source: TrendSpider
$SPY The S&P 500 had its best-performing week of 2024. Here are the top-performing stocks from last week: 👇🏻
Source: The Future Investors @ftr_investors
FLOWMAGEDDON: A Trump-inspired gusher of cash is flowing into risk-on ETFs, +$22b in one day is absurd, that is normally a good WEEK.
YTD net flows now +$856b, (55b away from annual record) and the rolling 1-year has passed $1T Source: Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg
Following the election, the SP500 typically rallies through inauguration day before moderating.
Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA, The Daily Shot
