Dow is only down 190pts so far this weekend.
Doesn’t seem too bad yet. We’ll see what futures say tomorrow morning. https://lnkd.in/eD7nnP5k
Could next week be a better week for bulls?
Source: TradingThomas3
Healthy gains heading into May have historically been a good signal of a positive year for stocks.
Since 1982, when the stock market was higher on the year heading into May, it went on to post a full-year gain roughly 90% of the time. In that period, 1987, 2011 and 2015 were the only years in which the market was higher from January to April but finished the year lower.1 There were nine years in which the year-to-date increase heading into May was in the 6.5%–9.5% range, comparable to 2024’s 8% year-to-date gain. In those instances, the stock market went on to post an average full-year increase of 13%. Source: Edward Jones
Yes, this week was painful for stocks.
But putting things into perspective, equities have been more resilient to higher rates recently versus previous periods of rising rates. Source: Edward Jones
Commodities are currently undervalued vs. equities
Source: Vontobel
The S&P 500's performance has been truly outstanding this year.
The index is up 9% year to date which is more than DOUBLE the average YTD return in an election year. In the past, the median return during a US presidential election year was about 11%. There are still several months until the presidential election but the index is on track to significantly exceed its historical performance. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Equity market positioning is VERY extended (which is bad from a contrarian perspective).
As shown in the chart below, Asset Managers have built the largest equity futures position in history 🚨🚨🚨 Source: Barchart, Goldman Sachs, CFTC
Goldman is embracing the rotational trade as well:
"Sell your Tech Stocks and invest elsewhere" says Goldman Sachs
