OPENAI IS ON TRACK TO BURN $218 BILLION AND THAT SHOULD MAKE PEOPLE PAUSE
OpenAI is projected to spend $218B from 2026–2029—far more than Uber, Netflix, and Tesla combined (~$39B)—while top AI researchers note that more compute now yields marginal gains (Source: Hedgie). Unlike companies with clear revenue paths, OpenAI is losing money on $200/month plans, chasing scale in a field with diminishing returns, driving GPU shortages and higher costs. Meanwhile, AI’s actual contribution to U.S. economic growth was minimal, raising questions about sustainability once investor optimism fades.
Software is deeply oversold (see below $IGV ETF) - Deutsche Bank seems to agree
1. DB argues Anthropic’s Enterprise Agents event reinforces that model providers are more likely to act as orchestration layers on top of incumbent software systems, not replace them, given the deep data, workflows, and metadata embedded in existing platforms (“Claude is only as useful as the data it connects to”). 2. This supports DB’s prior view that AI displacement risk to core software is over embedded in current multiples, making the event incrementally positive for the software sector. 3. Risks remain, including pressure on software development costs, potential changes to the interaction layer that could lower switching costs, and increased competition around the “control plane” for agentic AI, though DB continues to see this dynamic as supportive for infrastructure and compute demand.
P/E multiples tell the story
Software & Services used to rank as the 3rd most expensive industry group, it now sits 9th (and has fallen from 3rd to 13th in Europe). Multiples are down roughly 5.8x globally (around 5x in Europe), a re-rating unmatched by any other industry group. Source: DB, TME
Coca-Cola ($KO) now has a higher P/E multiple than Microsoft $MSFT
Source: Stock Unlock
$IBM is down over 13% after Anthropic launches an AI tool that converts old COBOL code to modern languages.
AI code translation directly competes with IBM's legacy modernization consulting.
Another day, another AI scare.
A Citrini blog post titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” triggered another AI-driven selloff in US equities on Monday. The Goldman Sachs Software At Risk Basket fell 6% yesterday and is now down 33% year to date. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Credit card stocks down big based on Citrini Research says AI agents will eventually transact on Stablecoin payment rails and bypass interchange.
Visa -4.4% Mastercard -6.3% American Express -7.9% Capital One -8.0% Source: Bearly AI @bearlyai
The Fwd P/E of the Tech sector is now at PAR with Consumer Staples.
In other words, the market is now valuing Tech at the same multiple as boring/slow growth Staples companies. That has only happened 3 times in the last 7 years: COVID, the 2022 Bear Market, and Liberation Day. Source: David Marlin
