Beware of the increase in equity supply... It’s not just the IPOs. It’s the coming wave of lockup expirations too
Source: Goldman Sachs, zerohedge
Japan's NIKKEI has surpassed 68,500 for the first time in history.
The NIKKEI is now up 36.5% in 2026, adding ¥365,000,000,000,000 ($2.5 trillion) in market value. Source: Bull Theory
South Korea has claimed the spot of the world's sixth-largest stock market.
We all know this is largely driven by tech, specifically Samsung and SK Hynix. Source: Ayesha Tariq, CFA
The software squeeze
At range highs, it is difficult to get greedy. Source: TME, LSEG Workspace
The S&P 500 averages +4.6% in midterm years dating back to 1950.
It's already up 11% halfway through 2026. Stocks are outpacing their own history by a mile this year. Source: Phil Rosen
The U.S. technology sector has surged 42% in the last two months, marking its biggest two-month rally in 24 years as AI and semiconductor stocks lead the market higher.
Source: Bloomberg
Google Stock Buybacks Per Year
AI is a capital intensive business. Source: Brandon Carl @brandonjcarl
The 1997 analogy on the S&P 500 (current in yellow vs. 1997 cycle in red)
There are plenty of tempting short signals out there, but markets driven by momentum and speculation rarely stop simply because they look expensive. For now, the 1997 analogy continues to prevail. The crowd keeps chasing upside, leverage keeps building, and downside protection remains unwanted. History suggests that can continue longer than expected. History also suggests it eventually matters... Source: TME
