Syz the moment

JPMorgan said today that Nvidia expects several billion of Blackwell revenue in Q4 Source: Stocktwits

US equity futures positioning by investors excluding market-makers just hit a net long of ~$290 billion, the most on record. Since the beginning of the year, net long positioning has more than DOUBLED. This is also twice as high as during the previous peaks seen in early 2018 and 2020. Meanwhile, US households' stock allocation as a percentage of financial assets hit a new record of 41.8% in Q2 2024. Investors are all-in on stocks. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

Source: Charlie Bilello

A momentum gauge of the Hang Seng Index just hit the highest level in 50 years. The % of members signalling overbought conditions is at a record. Source: Bloomberg, David Ingles

His fund is up 39%. Over the last 8 years he has also managed to provide returns of 345% compared to 110% for the S&P 500...! He only holds 10 companies. Source: @MMMTwealth

This is in line with the 2009 Great Financial Crisis levels. Notably, the share was higher only in 2020 and 2021. Russell 2000 firms also have $832 billion of debt. More rate cuts may help these zombie companies to stay alive. Source: Apollo, Global Markets Investor

sp500 heatmap October 1st Source: @bremarkets on X

Historically, Fed rate cuts triggered market rallies led by valuation expansion. But this time, it seems that markets front-loaded the Fed by accumulating us stocks AHEAD of the Fed decision. Bottom-line: Current market valuation is now on the high side vs. other instances in history when the Fed cut rates. This should limit the amplitude of the current bull equity Source: David Marlin