As we moved into 2024, one downside risk needs to be kept in mind:
tightening monetarypolicy cycle often operates with a lag. As shown on the chart below, stocks typically plunged many months after rates peaked in the past. Source. Bloomberg, Cheddar Flow
EQUITIES MOVE HIGHER AS BOND VOLALITY DROPS
Rates volatility joined the global volatility puke in November and we actually have the MOVE trading at the lowest levels since around mid September. Perfection vs SPX continues. Chart shows MOVE inverted vs SPX. Source: TME
Hedging demand has fallen sharply with the cost to protect against a market selloff down by around 10%, or one-standard deviation, tumbling to the lowest ever in data starting in 2013
Demand for tail-risk hedges that pay out in an equity fall as precipitous as 30% has also dropped and is hovering around the lowest level since March.- Bloomberg
Nasdaq has now listed 0DTE Options (Zero Days to Expiry) for ETFS tracking silver, gold, oil, natural gas, and treasuries. Let the games begin! 🎰
Financial Times >>> "Trading in a controversial type of derivative known as “zero-day” options is spreading to Treasury and commodity markets, as Nasdaq and other exchange groups try to replicate a boom that has transformed trading in US stock indices. Nasdaq this week listed a series of new options contracts tracking some of the most popular exchange traded funds investing in gold, silver, natural gas, oil and long-term Treasuries. Options contracts give investors the right to buy or sell an asset at a fixed price by a given date. Trading a contract on the day it expires is known as zero-day trading and can be used to bet on or hedge against extremely short-term market moves. Zero-day trading in options tied to the S&P 500 index boomed in popularity during the coronavirus pandemic. Initially viewed as a temporary phenomenon driven by speculative retail traders, the surge sparked concern among some analysts and regulators that it could create systemic risk by exacerbating market moves. Source: FT, Barchart
Up again today. Index is up 8%. This group of Chinese stocks is up over 50% in just a few weeks
Source: David Ingles, Bloomberg
A gauge of early-stage small, mid-cap growth stocks in China has rallied 40% within just a few weeks
Source: David Ingles, Bloomberg
Consensus expects Net margins for the Magnificent 7 to stay significantly higher than the rest of the S&P 500
Source: Goldman Sachs, TME
The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 ETFs are now less than 2% below their all-time high while the Russell 2000 ETF (small caps) is 24% below its high and the ARK Innovation ETF is 71% below its high
Source: Charlie Bilello
