The rally in US stocks in recent weeks has taken attention away from what looks like a pretty concerning forward picture from earnings releases
Q4 earnings expectations have come down considerably in recent weeks, in contrast with equity market strength. Source: Bob Elliott, Factset
A look back on just how rapid Nvidia's $NVDA data center growth has been
· +79.7% CAGR since Q3 FY17's $240M revenue. · Reached record levels at $1.9B in Q3 FY21. · Grown 664% since then to $14.51B in Q3 FY24. · Projected to reach $46.6B in FY24, 56x more than FY17's $830M. Source: Beth Kindig
YTD performance
Mag 7: +105% S&P 500: +19% Source: TME
Microsoft is now clearly ahead of Alphabet again in the AI race on the stock market
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
US bank stocks never recovered from the regional banking crisis. Currently, US bank stocks are at record lows relative to the S&P 500
According to Moodys, major US banks are sitting on $650 billion in unrealized losses. Meanwhile, the looming commercial real estate (CRE) crisis has small banks in question. Small banks currently hold ~70% of all CRE loans in the US, $1.5 trillion of which need to be refinanced by 2025. Source: BofA, The Kobeissi Letter
Thanksgiving to Santa Claus Rally trade starts on Tuesday
S&P 500 up 79.45% of the time since 1950. Avg performance: +2.57%. Trade combines the best consecutive 3-month span, Santa Claus Rally and January Effect. Source: StockTradersAlmanac.com, Jeffrey A. Hirsch
Nvidia stock hits All-Time High ahead of earnings:
The stock has gained 24% in November, on pace for its best month since a blowout earnings report in May. Nvidia has gained 245% in 2023, pushing its market value above $1.2tn. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
US stocks (Russell 3000) less the Mag 7 is up only +2.95% this year. It is thus underperforming cash for the second straight year.
Source: Jim Bianco
