BREAKING: 30-Year Treasury Yield hits 5% for the first time in 16 years while the 10-year hits 4.8%
Macro fundamentals and inflation fears are not the only culprit. Indeed, the slide in Treasuries now seems excessive given recent economic data and Federal Reserve policy. This could suggest it’s instead being driven by fears over the swelling US deficit. As show on teh chart below (Bloomber), the supply/demand balance context is clearly not favroable to US Treasuries. The recent move shows rising alarm at what fiscal policymakers are doing. Concerns over U.S. debt levels and large Treasury issuance have prompted investors to demand more compensation for the risk of holding long term bonds, driving long-term yields higher. Source: Bloomberg
The gap between NASDAQ and the US 10 year (inv) remains absolutely massive
Source: TME
EXTREME FEAR ?
-> Stock Market Fear & Greed Index falls to 16, the most fearful its been in the last year. Meanwhile, only 8% of $SPX stocks are currently trading above their respective 50-day moving averages, representing a 2%ile move over the last decade... Source: barchart
Arm takes the spotlight as the largest 2023 IPO, a year that has been almost deathly quiet for I.P.O.s.
The chip designer, which is owned by SoftBank, had priced its offering at $51 a share, raising $4.87B. Source: Genuine Impact
Q4 has easily been the strongest quarter of the year with an average gain that is more than twice the average of Q1 and Q2
Source: Bespoke
On a growth-adjusted basis, the mega caps trade at the largest discount to the median S&P 500 stock in over six years
Source: TME, Goldman Sachs
Asset class and style returns by JP Morgan
As bonds and stocks fell simultaneously, commodities were the notable outperformer in Q3, returning 4.7% and echoing the market dynamics of 2022. Source: JP Morgan
We have seen one of the fastest drops in equity positioning since early 2022. Time to think about the upside pain trade?
Source: TME, DB
