Thankfully, the US is a country where the President has very little impact on the stock market
Stocks tend to go up during most presidencies, regardless of who is in power. Key takeaway: Don't mix politics with your portfolio. Source: Charlie Bilello
OIL PANIC?
As shown on the chart below (courtesy of TME), big golden crosses can lead to much bigger outsized oil moves than what we are seeing now… This is becoming problematic for equity markets. As explained by Goldman, "rallying rates and commodities are derailing the goldilocks soft landing scenario. The uncomfortable combination of rallying oil and US long end breaking up is disrupting this equilibrium and triggering a rotation into the “persisting inflation & sticky rates” narrative, adding pressure on equities and valuations". (GS sales desk)
FAT over AI: the match...
while headlines are all about artificial intelligence darling Nvidia, the weight-loss drugs champions Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk stocks performance has been spectacular as well. Two year chart shows that $LLY is well ahead of "hot" $NVDA...and $NVO is practically "there"... Source: The Market Ear, Refinitiv
Hedge Fund YTD returns by strategy as of August 2023
Source: www.aurum.com
SoftBank's $ARM IPO is coming up
The chip designer aims to raise ~$5B, targeting a valuation of $50B-$55B. It's the largest US IPO since $RIVN in 2021. Note that SoftBank’s $50bn flotation of Arm is more than five times oversubscribed, according to bankers pitching investors on the biggest initial public offering in nearly two years, as the UK-based chip designer forecast accelerating revenue growth boosted by the artificial intelligence boom. Despite investor concerns about a drop in profits in Arm’s most recent quarter amid a smartphone industry slowdown and the company’s exposure to multiple risks in China, advisers working on the Nasdaq listing said there was “little price sensitivity among investors”, many of whom would be forced to buy because of Arm’s inclusion in indices. Here's a snapshot of its FY 2023 income satement by App Economy Insights
Out of 28,114 publicly-listed U.S. companies analyzed over the last century, the 25 best stocks have created nearly a third of all shareholder wealth
Put another way, as Visual Capitalist detail below, just 0.1% of stocks have added over $17.6 trillion to investors’ wallets. This graphic, using data from Henrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University, show the best stocks of the last century.
The sp500 P/E ratio used to be tightly correlated to the US 2 year yield (inverted on the chart), i.e the lower the 2 year yield, the higher the P/E ratio and vice versa
Well, this is no longer the case as a giant crocodile jaw has been forming. Which of the 2 will bind firts? Source. Jeroen Blokland, True Insights
India Nifty 50 Index. Big picture, via 5% box size
Source: Mark Ungewitter
