BANK EARNINGS >>> Bank of America $BAC stock is down -4% today after reporting earnings down -18% yoy.
$BAC Bank of America Q1 FY24. Revenue -2% to $25.8B ($0.4B beat): • Net Interest income: $14.0B (-3% Y/Y). • Noninterest income $11.8B (-0% Y/Y). Net Income $6.7B (-18% Y/Y). Non-GAAP EPS: $0.83 ($0.06 beat). CET1 ratio of 11.8%. Source: App Economy Insights
Corporate insiders are more bearish than they have been in at least one decade
Source: InsiderSentiment.com
Reversion to the meme...
Source: Charlie Bilello
The correlation between equity market volatility and inflation expectations is at the highest level we've seen in decades.
Although the chart below doesn't extend as far back, a similar phenomenon occurred in 1973-1974 as markets faced difficulties whenever inflation reaccelerated. This is especially pertinent now, with energy prices, agricultural commodities, precious metals, copper, global freight costs, and other inflation indicators showing significant resurgence. Source: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
Dow is only down 190pts so far this weekend.
Doesn’t seem too bad yet. We’ll see what futures say tomorrow morning. https://lnkd.in/eD7nnP5k
Healthy gains heading into May have historically been a good signal of a positive year for stocks.
Since 1982, when the stock market was higher on the year heading into May, it went on to post a full-year gain roughly 90% of the time. In that period, 1987, 2011 and 2015 were the only years in which the market was higher from January to April but finished the year lower.1 There were nine years in which the year-to-date increase heading into May was in the 6.5%–9.5% range, comparable to 2024’s 8% year-to-date gain. In those instances, the stock market went on to post an average full-year increase of 13%. Source: Edward Jones
Yes, this week was painful for stocks.
But putting things into perspective, equities have been more resilient to higher rates recently versus previous periods of rising rates. Source: Edward Jones
Commodities are currently undervalued vs. equities
Source: Vontobel
