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Europe’s gas imports from russia overtook supplies from the US for the first time in almost two years in May, despite the region’s efforts to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels since the full scale invasion of Ukraine. While one-off factors drove the reversal, it highlights the difficulty of further reducing Europe’s dependence on gas from Russia, with several eastern European countries still relying on imports from their neighbour. The US overtook Russia as a supplier of gas to Europe in September 2022, and has since 2023 accounted for about a fifth of the region’s supply. But last month, Russian-piped gas and LNG shipments accounted for 15 per cent of total supply to the EU, UK, Switzerland, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, according to data from ICIS. LNG from the US made up 14 per cent of supply to the region, its lowest level since August 2022, the ICIS data showed. Link to Article >>> https://lnkd.in/eJJjKBFi Source: FT

Source: Science Is Strategic, The Economist, Pitchbook #venturecapital

https://on.ft.com/3yZxBnW

Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

With 20 days to go to the lower house snap elections, a poll credits Marine Le Pen RN with 34% of the vote, far ahead of the left & far-left coalition and the Macron camp. One election can hide another. No sooner have the results of the European elections been announced than all eyes have turned to the early legislative elections. With 20 days to go to the first round, a Toluna Harris Interactive poll for Challenges, M6 and RTL puts the Rassemblement National (RN) well ahead. If the legislative elections had been held today, the Rassemblement National would have won 34% of the vote. A clear improvement on the 18.7% recorded in 2022. Long under-represented in the Assembly, the RN would be the leading force in the lower house. However, as the legislative elections will be held in 577 constituencies over two rounds, it is very difficult to project a precise number of seats. For the time being, it's impossible to know whether the Marinist troops will win an absolute or even a relative majority. Nevertheless, they seem to be well positioned to win the election, especially if they can create a coalition with other right-wing parties and traditional right. A win by RN could lead to a cohabitation with Jordan Bardella (RN) as Prime Minister. Source: Le Figaro

The gap between the 10-year French government bond yield and the 10-year EUR Swap rate, a key benchmark for borrowing costs in Europe, has significantly widened since the recent European elections in France The trend was already "en marche" since S&P recently downgraded France’s credit rating from AA to AA-, following a similar downgrade by Fitch last year. Moody’s has also indicated that the current situation might lead to another downgrade. While other countries like Ireland and Spain have seen their financial health improve, France seems to be facing more challenges. Political uncertainty and reliance on international investors might cause money to leave France, pushing borrowing costs even higher. Higher interest rates on French bonds mean that investors want bigger returns because they see more risk in lending money to France. Japanese investors, who own a lot of French bonds, might start investing more in their own country due to rising interest rates there, reducing demand for French bonds. Additionally, some hedge funds are betting against European government bonds, showing a lack of confidence in the stability of European economies, including France. This trend underscores the growing concerns about France’s economic and political stability in the broader European context. Source: Bloomberg

German Chancellor Scholz’s SPD crashed to 14%, their worst-ever result, falling to 3rd place behind the far-right AfD, exit polls show. The other 2 parties in Scholz’s ruling alliance – the Greens and the FDP – got 12% and 5% respectively. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

*MACRON GROUP HAS 15%-16%, LE PEN'S HAS 32%-33%: POLLSTERS Source: Bloomberg, Le Figaro, C.Barraud