Energy demand in China has increased rapidly over the last few decades due to rising incomes and industrialization.
The country now uses about the same amount of energy per person as the European Union. You can see this in this chart, with new data from the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy. This measure of primary energy is based on the substitution method, which tries to account for the inefficiencies of fossil fuels compared to renewables. Source: Our world in data (This Data Insight was written by @_HannahRitchie and Pablo Rosado.)
Eurozone core inflation unexpectedly sticky: Headline CPI slows to +2.5% in June from 2.6% in May, in line w/forecasts
However, core inflation unchanged at 2.9% – a notch higher than forecasted. Experts had expected it to cool to 2.8%. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
France's 10y risk spread over German bunds drops to 74bps on speculation Marine Le Pen’s far-right party will struggle to win an outright majority in French elections.
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The Le Pen vote
Parliament elections 1st Round- over time: 1988: 9% 1993: 12% 1997: 15% 2002: 11% 2007: 4% 2012: 13% 2017: 13% 2022: 18% 2024: 34% National populism is only getting stronger. Source: Matt Goodwin
A maps of 2024 French legislative election 1st round
next round is 7th of July Source: FT
Euro starts slightly higher to the week following French election in which Marine Le Pen’s far-right party is poised to dominate the first round.
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
FRENCH LOWER HOUSE SNAP ELECTIONS
FIRST TAKE 1) French far-right has strong lead in France's 1st voting round. The National Rally (RN) was projected to get between 33% and 34.2% of the vote. The left-wing New Popular Front coalition was set to get between 28.5% and 29.6% and Macron’s centrist alliance between 21.5% and 22.4%. 2) The exit polls were in line with opinion polls ahead of the election, but provided little clarity on whether the RN will be able to form a government to "cohabit" with the pro-EU Macron after next Sunday's run-off. As projections show between 240 to 270 seats won at the second round, the RN could thus get a relative majority in Parliament. Le Pen party needs 289 seats for a majority in the second round French ballot. Bottom-line >>> The National Rally is likely to win the elections. Question is would it be a RELATIVE or ABSOLUTE majority. There are 3 possible outcomes: 1/ Absolute majority (Bardella as Prime Minister) Expect modest OAT-Bund spread widening and another (modest) downside leg for French equities (especially “national victims”) 2/ Minority majority / Hung parliament Expect a modest OAT-Bund spread widening and French equities stabilize 3/ Caretaker or Technical government Expect a modest OAT-Bund spread tightening and French equities rebound (especially “national victims”). The euro is currently STRENGTHENING as Asia trading just started. This means that markets are now expecting a HUNG PARLIAMENT with no Prime Minister coming from Rassemblement National. Even of the party from Mrs Le Pen win the election, they will refuse to appoint Bardella as PM. This opens the door to a Prime Minster coming from the center or a technical one. This means political paralysis but markets can probably live with this...
Mind the gap: The French debt ratio is almost twice as high as the German debt ratio.
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
