One bond market is defying global selloff with mega returns
As bond markets everywhere get battered by a cocktail of higher interest rates, deficit angst and hawkish central bankers, one class of debt instrument is handing creditors double-digit returns: catastrophe bonds.
Because of the way the bonds are structured, their coupons keep going up as Treasury yields rise, and investors get a sizable risk premium on their capital, as long as catastrophe doesn’t hit.
Source: SwissRe, Bloomberg
Over half of bond ETFs are now trading at a discount
Spikes in this number have been a pretty reliable bottom signal in the past. That said we not quite near the last two spikes but close.. Source: psarofagis thru Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg
The US has already issued $1.76 trillion in net Treasury securities through September
It will be well over $2 trillion by year-end, trailing only 2020 for the largest net debt issuance of any year in history. Source: Charlie Bilello
U.S. Treasuries have reached one of the most oversold levels in the last 36 years
This has typically foreshadowed events such as the October 1987 crash, the Dotcom Bubble, and the Nasdaq surge (Oct 2022) Source: Barchart, BofA
The longest duration bond ETF ($ZROZ) is down over 60% from its peak in 2020 and now has a negative return over the last 10 years. Bond ETF Returns...
Source: Charlie Bilello
Who has the losses on the books? Value of global bonds has lost another $1.04tn. This brings the total losses to $3.9tn since mid-July
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Interesting FT article on UK neobanks: "UK fintech: neobanks may end up blending in"
Low fees mean profits have remained elusive. But higher interest rates are now compensating for that, not least with better returns on client money put out on deposit. Satisfaction scores by customers are also much higher than traditional banks. Some lessons need to be learned. Source: https://lnkd.in/emZyY76d
Open interest for bullish call contracts has soared to an all-time high for $TLT
Traders see an end to the market rout that has led to TLT’s longest streak of weekly losses since 2022. Source: Credit From Macro to Micro
