Emerging Market Local Currency Debt: Sustaining the Rally?
Emerging Market local currency debts have proven to be top performers (+18%) since reaching the peak in the 10-year US Treasury yield (4.25%) in October 2022, during this rate hike cycle. This specific segment of the fixed income market has offered attractive real rates, leading to the strengthening of EM currencies against the US Dollar. Notably, volatility in EM currencies has reached its lowest level since March 2020 and the global pandemic. As emerging market central banks prepare for potential monetary policy "pivot" (starting with Chile, Hungary and Brazil?), the question arises: will this trend continue? Or could we see a break in the rally, despite the favorable gap in nominal policy rates between EM and DM, while the gap in headline inflation reaches its tightest level? Source : Bloomberg
Nasdaq vs Yield Curve
Source: AmplifyME/ Anthony Cheung
JP Morgan AM says global bond rally is just starting
The rally that erupted after this week’s US inflation report was the moment Wall Street veteran Bob Michele has been waiting for.
“More and more indicators are at levels you only see in recession. We are buying every backup in yields. The considerable central bank tightening is starting to bite hard in the real economy.”, said Michele
Is this the biggest risk for the equity "bears"
Is this the biggest risk for the equity "bears". As highlighted by Goldman, there is a $5 Trillion “wedge” between Money Market Funds and bonds vs. equities... As investors realize that the much feared recession is not happening, they might be willing to move from the sidelines back into risk assets. Goldman's Rubner calls it a "R.I.N.O market" (Recession In Name Only).
The $1.35tn US junk bond market has shrunk by 13% since all-time peak
High-yield market contracts 13% from 2021 peak amid fears of false signals about American economy’s health.
A steep rise in interest rates since early last year has helped deter companies from selling new bonds, while several companies have climbed out of the high-yield market into investment grade territory. The spread has simultaneously widened out to 4.05% from roughly 3%.
Source: Financial Times
Investors added a net $535 million to IShares iBoxx High Yield corporate bond
This was the biggest one-day increase since June 2 and the third straight day of inflows, totaling $897.9 million. The fund's assets increased by 6.9% during that span. The fund has suffered net outflows of $543.4 million in the past year. Source: Bloomberg
Currently, the 10-year yield is at 3.98%
A move above 4% on the 10-year Treasury yield caused the last 2 blowups in financial markets: - UK pension fund - US regional banks Source: Game of Trades
These charts by Bank of America show that every single episode of a local peak in UST 2yr yield was followed by some risk-negative event over the past 40 years.
These #charts by Bank of America show that every single episode of a local peak in UST 2yr yield was followed by some risk-negative event over the past 40 years. Such episodes ranged from mild (Mexican peso crisis in Dec 1995; HY +95bp) to moderate (Asia FX crisis in Oct 1997; HY +350bp ) to severe (GFC; HY all-time wides). The lag between the peak in 2yr yield and subsequent event varies from just a couple of weeks to just over a year, with an average being 7 months. Source: BofA, www.zerohedge.com
