Banco Central do Brazil Surprises with a Larger-than-Expected Rate Cut!
Following the surprising rate cut by 100bps from Chile's Central Bank earlier this week, Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) has also made an unexpected move by announcing a rate cut of 50bps, surpassing market expectations of 25bps. The BCB President, Roberto Campos Neto, reduced the Selic to 13.25% yesterday, with a split decision among board members, four of whom voted for a smaller quarter-point cut. In a related statement, policymakers emphasized the improved consumer price outlook and the decline in longer-term inflation expectations. With Brazil's recent rating upgrade and positive progress in inflation, the country appears well-positioned to continue its path of prudent monetary policy decisions. Could we expect similar rate cuts from Peru and Mexico in the region? In any case, just as at the beginning of the tightening cycle, Latin American central banks are once again ahead of their developed counterparts. Source : Bloomberg.
U.S. High Yield credit spreads : time for decompression?
The updated Fed's July senior loan officer survey reveals a notable trend—there's an even higher net share of banks tightening lending standards for C&I compared to the prior survey in April. Historically, this has had implications for US high yield credit spreads. But is this time different? Source : Bloomberg
US Credit rating by agency
Moody's: Aaa S&P: AA+ Fitch: AA+ Source: Evan
BREAKING: Fitch downgrades the United States' long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+
Fitch says that "repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions" are to blame. They note that debt-ceiling standoffs have "eroded" confidence in fiscal management. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg
Bonds are looking the most attractive vs stocks in decades, according to one metric
The gap between the earnings yield of the S&P 500 and the yield on the 10-year Treasuries dropped to around 1.1 percentage point last week, its narrowest since 2002. Source: Lisa Abramowicz
🌎 Global yield curve steepening gained momentum last week as a sign that major central banks are nearing the end of their tightening cycles
Source: Bloomberg, Fast reveal
Chile Central bank cut its key rate by 100bps!
Here we go ! The Banco Central de Chile (BCCh) is the first central bank to kick off easing cycle! The Chilean Central Bank made a surprising move by cutting its key interest rate by 100bp to 10.25%, surpassing market expectations of a 50bp reduction. The decision was unanimous, and the BCCh hints at further rate cuts in the near future. This move comes as inflationary pressures ease rapidly, and economic activity weakens. Despite recent challenges, the CLP (Chilean Peso Spot) has shown resilience this year, benefiting from reduced political uncertainty. Policymakers aim to support the #economy amidst deteriorating #sentiment and economic activity. The minutes scheduled for August 14 will provide further insights into the central bank's outlook. Source : Bloomberg
US Treasuries sold off yesterday and are now on the verge of a breakdown from support
The chart below courtesy of Crescat Capital / Tavi Costa is a reminder of the divergence between rising yields and the highly valued Nasdaq index. Is this divergence sustainable? Source: Bloomberg, Tavi Costa
