The US Treasury will hold some of its largest-ever debt auctions in the coming three months in an effort to fill the yawning federal budget deficit.
The Treasury said on Wednesday it would increase the size of auctions at most maturities for the next three months, with two-year and five-year auctions hitting record sizes. The five-year auction in April, for $70bn, would be the biggest ever for debt with a maturity of two years or more. The US has been increasing its borrowing over the past few quarters, as the gap between government spending and tax revenue has grown. The federal deficit stood at $1.7tn last year. Source: FT https://lnkd.in/eSyQHXu9
The Fed said that a March rate cut is "unlikely," yet futures are still pricing in a 39% chance it happens
Even as the Fed said they cannot cut rates until inflation is comfortably moving to 2%, markets still see 6 cuts in 2024. There's even a growing 23% chance of 7 interest rate cuts this year. Markets are pricing in a rate cut at EVERY remaining Fed meeting this year. As highlighted by the Kobeissi Letter, if the Fed is on track for a "soft landing," why do we need to many rate cuts? Source: The Kobeissi Lette
Visualizing 150 Years of Exports for Top Economic Superpowers
Source: Visual Capitalist
No wonder the US is polarized...
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Divided Bank of England boe leaves policy unchanged, says interestrates are ‘under review’
- Inflation is projected to fall temporarily to the Bank’s 2% target in the second quarter of this year before rising again in the third and fourth, due to the varying contribution of energy prices to annual comparisons. - Headline inflation is not expected to return to target again until late 2026, the Bank’s newest Monetary Policy Report projected. - Bank of England: 6 votes to hold rates, 2 votes to hike, 1 vote to cut This is the 6th time in the BoE's 295 meeting history that we've seen a 3 way split vote. On most occasions (except for '06) - the doves have won & BoE have gone on to cut rates sharply https://lnkd.in/e64nMDB6
Powell “stayed away from addressing the banking sector but the sharp decline in regional shares is certainly getting attention at the Fed.”
Could the combo "March cut is fully priced out + regional bank stress building" trigger a temporary spike of the VIX? Source: Carl Quintanilla
The two largest economies in Africa are under huge financial strain.
On Monday, Nigeria de facto devalued the naira by ~30% (after another ~30% devaluation in June). And Egypt is under pressure to devalue too, with the pound ~50% weaker in the black market. Source: Javier Blas Bloomberg
China Factory Activity Expands Again, Private Survey Shows
Source: Bloomberg, C.Barraud
