The interest payments on US Federal Government Debt have surpassed a $1 trillion annual rate, increasing 98% over the past 3 years
Source: Charlie Bilello
Eurozone CPI slowed less than anticipated in Feb, highlighting stickiness in inflation
Headline inflation eased to 2.6% YoY in Feb, above 2.5% consensus estimate in BBG survey. Core inflation came down by 0.2%-pt to 3.1%, also an upward surprise compared to 2.9% consensus estimate. Source: Bloomberg
Supercore PCE MoM exploded, highest since Dec 2021
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
Today's report unveiled the largest positive surprise in US personal income since the surge in consumer prices began in 2021
Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
More evidence of a decline in US Inflation...
The PCE Price Index moved down to 2.4% in January, its lowest level since February 2021. Cycle peak was 7% in June 2022. Source: Charlie Bilello
France PPI YOY is the lowest since 2009...
Source: Bloomberg, Alessio Urban
When you invest in US debt, think twice...
In Q4 2023, nominal GDP grew by 3.2% according to data on Wednesday. This would mean a $334.5 billion increase in nominal GDP. Meanwhile, over the same time period the US added $834.2 billion of debt. In other words, it cost us $2.50 of debt for every $1.00 of GDP last quarter, according to Zerohedge. As Fed Chair Powell recently said, "we are on an unsustainable fiscal path." What's the long term plan here? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, www.zerohedge.com
Interest rate cut expectations continue to scale back: Markets now see a ~38% chance of 4 interest rate cuts in 2024
Just over a month ago, the base case showed a 50%+ chance of 6 interest rate cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, odds of a March rate cut are down to 3% and odds of a May rate cut are down to 19%. For the first time in 2024, markets are close to the Fed's latest guidance of 3 cuts in 2024. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
