The current macro environment across global equity markets presents a sharply divided investment setup for 2024 and the remainder of the decade.
Source: Tavi Costa
Swiss inflation vs. German inflation.
The inflation rate in Switzerland is already well below the target of 2%. At 1.7%, it is a full 2ppts lower than the German rate. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Your grocery bill has increased more than 25% over the last 4 years!
Source: barchart
The Red Sea's inflation threat:
The disruptions in the Red Sea have roiled global supply chains and pushed up freight costs. The Houthis have pledged a “big” response to airstrikes. Iran wins either way w/US airstrikes on Houthis in Yemen. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Red Sea Transit Volume
Source: BofA, Win Smart
Weighted Average interestrate for sp500 non-financial firms is expected to pick-up in 2024e and 2025e but remains quite low by historical standard.
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Is this the reason why the Fed might be forced to cut rates in March?
We could have: 1. Reverse repo ends (see chart below) 2. BTFP expires 3. Fed cuts (allegedly) 4. QT ends (allegedly) I.e 3 and 4 could counter-balance 1 and 2
$JPM JP Morgan Chase Q4 FY23.
CEO Jamie Dimon: Deficit spending and supply chain adjustments “may lead inflation to be stickier and rates to be higher than markets expect." • Net revenue +12% Y/Y to $38.6B ($1.2B miss). • Net Income $9.3B. • Non-GAAP EPS: $3.97 ($0.37 beat). • CET1 ratio of 15.0%. • Expect FY24 NII of $90B (+1% Y/Y).
