That’s an amazing trend. What is driving it?
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Germany's exports to Kyrgyzstan were up 1200% in 2023 vs before Russia invaded Ukraine...
Source: Robin Brooks
The reason why tighter bank lending conditions bite Eurozone economy faster, while US companies still don’t suffer under higher rates due to longer duration.
Source: Patrick Krizan, Michel A.Arouet
A record $8.9 trillion of government debt will mature over the next year.
Meanwhile, the government deficit in 2024 is projected to be $1.4 trillion. This means that someone will need to buy more than $10 trillion in US government bonds in 2024. That's nearly ONE THIRD of all outstanding US federal debt right now. All while the Fed is expected to start cutting rates, making buying these bonds less attractive. Who's going to fund all of this debt? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Apollo
Do you remember the dramatic loosing of Financial conditions at the end of 2023?
The lagged effect of this massive loosening is now hitting and is supporting the US economy (and this NOT doing The Fed's job...). Indeed, US economic surprises keep surprising on the upside. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 4.2 percent (!!!) on February 1, up from 3.0 percent on January 26
Mentions of Job Cuts in Earnings Calls Hits Pandemic Peak
Layoffs are being mentioned on US earnings calls at the HIGHEST rate since the pandemic, according to Bloomberg. Source: Bloomberg, Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA
Nice cartoon by hedgeye...
Let see how long Powell will resist not cutting rates... Trump seems to have already decided about his faith anyway...
BREAKING: US NFP at 353k way above the estimated 185k, Wages came in hotter than expected +4.5% YoY vs +4.1% expected.
The December jobs report has been revised UP, showing 333,000 jobs added rather than the 216,000 originally reported. This breaks a 10-month trend of downward revisions in the reported jobs number. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings in January rose 0.6%, DOUBLING expectations. Unemployment rate held flat MoM at 3.7% (the Street was anticipating 3.8%). Note that according to the Household survey, the number of employed people dipped by 31k MoM, so US Non-farm-payroll report is not as hot as at 1st sight. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
