Gross domestic product data showed the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter
That’s much higher than the 2% expectation from economists polled by Dow Jones, underscoring continued economic resiliency despite interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The result, for better or worse, speak for themselves: while Q4 GDP rose by $329 billion to $27.939 trillion, a respectable if made up number, what is much more disturbing is that over the same time period, the US budget deficit rose by more than 50%, or $510 billion. And the cherry on top: the increase in public US debt in the same three month period was a stunning $834 billion, or 154% more than the increase in GDP. In other words, it now takes $1.55 in budget deficit to generate $1 of growth... and it takes over $2.50 in new debt to generate $1 of GDP growth! Source; www.zerohedge.com
It's official: markets are no longer expecting a FED rate cut in March 2024.
There's still a ~42% chance of rate cuts beginning in March, but this is a major shift in expectations. Just two weeks ago, markets saw a 90% chance of rate cuts beginning in March. Odds of rate cuts beginning at next week's Fed meeting are now down to ~2%. We are still seeing ~150 bps of interest rate cuts priced-in to futures. But, Fed pivot hopes are slowly pulling back. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
If we do not have a recession, stocks tend to rally after the Fed cuts
If we do, however, they tend to decline They say the economy isn't the market, but in this example it could have a measurable impact on the outcome Source: Markets & Mayhem
China's real GDP is now further below its pre-COVID trend than after the 2008 crisis
Will they be tempted to opt for more mercantilism (and expansionism)? Source chart: Robin Brooks
Japan is expected to be short 11 million workers by 2040
Source: Win Smart, FT
Corporate Borrowing Hits All-Time High 🚨:
Investment Grade Companies have issued more than $150 Billion worth of bonds through the first 18 days of the year, the highest amount in history at this point in the year. Source: Barchart, FT
Real estate as inflation protection in one chart, updated
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Suez Canal Transit Volume continues to plunge (Chart via SRP)
Source: HolgerZ
