Labor unions are pushing for big pay rise…
e.g Southwest Airlines pilot pay would increase 50pct under new labor contract. A wage-inflation spiral remains a threat (even if overall job creations are plunging) Source: CNBC
Longer-term US inflation expectations have fallen dramatically over the past two months, to close to the Fed's 2% target
Source: Bloomberg
Compound interest as the 8th wonder of the world...
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German federal government is set to trim federal debt sales next year following the German top court's 'debt brake' ruling. Berlin plans to issue ~€440bn in debt
That compares with a record volume of ~€500bn in 2023 Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
“The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.” Mark Twain, 1897
Source: Lawrence McDonald, Bloomberg
What a headline...
Hafize Gaye Erkan, the new head of Turkey’s central bank, said rampant inflation has priced her out of Istanbul’s property market, leaving the former finance executive with no choice but to move back in with her parents. “We haven’t found a home in Istanbul. It’s terribly expensive. We’ve moved in with my parents,” 44-year-old Hafize Gaye Erkan, who took up her post in June after two decades in the United States, told reporters. Source: Wall Street Silver
BREAKING >>>New York Fed President John Williams CNBC interview: The Fed "isn't really" talking about rate cuts right now
Mr. Williams said: - The Fed "isn't really" talking about rate cuts right now. - Committee members submit projections regarding path of interest rates. Inflation and economy is still uncertain, but base cases are looking pretty good. - Policy focused on getting inflation down to 2%. - Market reaction to all news events have been larger than normal. - Fed should be ready to hike again if needed. - Fed is at or near right place for monetary policy. - The policy restraints should be dialed back slowly over the next three years.
Believe it or not...
On December 14, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q4 2023 is 2.6%.
