The Influence of Family-Owned Businesses, by Share of GDP
by The Visual Capitalist
On the timing of the first cut, Waller said he believes that the FOMC will be able to lower the funds rate “this year.”
Main culprits from yesterday's pullback in Wall Street were comments by Governor Waller in a speech and discussion as they raised the risk that the first cut could come slightly later than the market's expectation of March and that the pace of cuts could be quarterly from the outset, rather than the market's more aggressive forecast of three initial consecutive cuts followed by a switch to a quarterly pace. On the speed of cuts, Waller said the funds rate “can and should be lowered methodically and carefully” and that he sees “no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past,” when the FOMC was combating recessions. Waller also noted that next month's scheduled revisions to CPI inflation (the seasonal factors will be revised on February 9) could influence his thinking on rates cuts, especially if the revised data show a less clear deceleration recently. The result was most evident in the drop in the market's expectations for a rate-cut in March...
Container transportation costs have indeed doubled over the past 6 weeks but it is important to see the full picture. Relative to the pandemic peaks, transportation prices are still 75% lower...
Source: Bastion notes, Oxford Economics
44% of office loans carry outstanding loan balances higher than the property value and are at risk of default according to a paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research
Source: Barchart
The Economy is not The Market
Source: Win Smart
The current macro environment across global equity markets presents a sharply divided investment setup for 2024 and the remainder of the decade.
Source: Tavi Costa
Swiss inflation vs. German inflation.
The inflation rate in Switzerland is already well below the target of 2%. At 1.7%, it is a full 2ppts lower than the German rate. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Your grocery bill has increased more than 25% over the last 4 years!
Source: barchart
