Syz the moment

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That compares with a record volume of ~€500bn in 2023 Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

Source: Lawrence McDonald, Bloomberg

Hafize Gaye Erkan, the new head of Turkey’s central bank, said rampant inflation has priced her out of Istanbul’s property market, leaving the former finance executive with no choice but to move back in with her parents. “We haven’t found a home in Istanbul. It’s terribly expensive. We’ve moved in with my parents,” 44-year-old Hafize Gaye Erkan, who took up her post in June after two decades in the United States, told reporters. Source: Wall Street Silver

Mr. Williams said: - The Fed "isn't really" talking about rate cuts right now. - Committee members submit projections regarding path of interest rates. Inflation and economy is still uncertain, but base cases are looking pretty good. - Policy focused on getting inflation down to 2%. - Market reaction to all news events have been larger than normal. - Fed should be ready to hike again if needed. - Fed is at or near right place for monetary policy. - The policy restraints should be dialed back slowly over the next three years.

On December 14, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q4 2023 is 2.6%.

In the 1970s they also thought they had beat inflation in 1974-1975, they lowered rates and then inflation roared back to even higher levels in the late 1970s. Inflation on came down in early 1980s because of two factors. 1) massive new oil (energy) supply from Alaska, Gulf of Mexico, North Sea and huge new fields in Mexico coming online. 2) 18% interest rates crushed the economy. Source: Wall Street Silver

Interesting how the unemployment rate tends to spike right after the Fed cuts rates. Suggesting that Fed policy easing is usually a negative signal for the economy. Not a positive one. Source: FRED, re:venture