While many economists and financial analysts look at the 1970s as a potential playbook for the current decade, the 1940s could be an interesting reference to consider as well
The 40s was a decade of war and high budget deficit and rising debt level in the US. Monetary policy was mainly about financial repression, i.e keeping rates low despite temporarily high inflation. Overall, it was positive for risk assets. Source: Win Smart, FRED
German inflation has accelerated again, at least the headline rate
CPI rose to 3.7% in December from 3.2% in November due to base effect. But Core CPI has fallen further to 3.5% in Dec from 3.8% in November. This means that core inflation is once again below headline inflation. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
How the economy works... An over-simplistic but accurate chart
Source: Markets & Mayhem
The Druckenmiller Recession indicator continues to plummet
Source: Win Smart, TS Lombard
GLOBAL WAGES
Source: Win Smart, Genuine Impact and The Daily Shot
The government debt maturity wall
Bloomberg thru Jeroen Bloklan / M_McDonough
US Interest expense ~$1.1 trillion as of today
That's $250BN more than the Defense Budget; $250BN more than spending on Medicare, $200BN more than spending on health, and will surpass the $1.35 trillion spending on Social Security this year, becoming the single biggest outlay Source: www.zerohedge.com
US Hiring plunged by 363K in November, the biggest monthly drop since July 2020
Vacancies fell in November to 8.79 million, lowest since 2021 Quits rate dropped to lowest level in more than three years Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
