After adjusting for inflation, US retail sales fell 0.7% over the last year, the 11th consecutive YoY decline
That's the longest down streak since 2009. Nominal retail sales increased 3.0% YoY vs. a historical average of 4.7%. Source: Charlie Bilello
There is a different culture of public debt in Germany than in France
Nevertheless, French Finance Minister Le Maire hopes to find a compromise for new budget rules w/Germany. “We will continue to work w/Christian Lindner in the coming weeks to try to reach a Franco-German accord that could serve as a basis for a wider deal,” Le Maire said ahead of a meeting with his EU peers in Luxembourg. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
At the time of rising bond yields, here's a list of teh most indebted companies in the world by Genuine Impact
🚗Toyota Group is the most indebted company globally in 2023. 🏠While Evergrande Group, one of China’s biggest property developers, has lower debt than Toyota, its performance is significantly inferior to Toyota. It recently faced a debt crisis and is on the verge of collapse.
The relative Nasdaq 100 bull does not care about no rates moving higher...
Source: TME, Goldman Sachs
Italy 10y risk spread over German 10y bunds back >200bps as budget day arrives
Italy PM Meloni to unveil tax-cutting 2024 budget today amid debt worries. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Wondering why high interest rates hasn't hurt sp500 performance so far?
Just have a look at the chart below courtesy of Linas Beliūnas. The S&P 500 heavy weights are full of cash and have been benefiting from the higher yield paid on short-term deposits. E,g Apple is making $1 billion on their cash holdings doing absolutely nothing...
For the first time in the last 5 decades, rising interest rates have failed to cause Stock P/E multiples to contract
Source: Barchart
US Treasuries were bid this week due to the search of "safe havens" on the back of Middle East turmoil
However, ugly auctions on Thursday came as a harsh remainder of the unfavourable supply/demand situation faced by US Treasuries. On the supply side, there is a tsunami of notes and bonds that is going to flood the market. And it is occurring while the Fed, under its QT program, is letting about $60 billion a month in maturing Treasury securities roll off the balance sheet without replacement. With the Fed reducing its holdings, that tsunami of notes and bonds being issued will have to find buyers, and those buyers will have to be enticed by yields. Unless inflation and growth slow down meaningfully, yields are unlikely to drop aggressively. Source: www.wolfstreet.com, Bloomberg
