Have you ever heard about mortgages in negative amortization?
As highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter, three of Canada's largest banks are seeing ~20% of their outstanding mortgages in negative amortization. What does this mean? Monthly payments on ~20% of mortgages at BMO, TD, and CIBC are no longer enough to cover interest expense. This means you end up owing more than your original loan amount over time. Typically, variable rate mortgages with fixed payments experience this in a rapidly rising interest rate environment. These homeowners may begin to foreclose over the next few months. This is an important trend worth watching.
Can be the second half of 2007 be a good parallel for today's market?
As highlighted by MacroAlf, back in 2007, the FED kept rates at 5.25% (orange) despite core inflation was trending around 2% (blue) for quarters already. That ''higher for longer'' stubborness kept policy unnecessarily tight - as we figured out in 2008... Source: Alfonso Peccatiello
It is official? Total US Debt surpasses $33 trillion for the first time. For those keeping tabs, the US added $1 trillion in debt in just 3 months
Cartoon: Gary Varvel
JUST IN: Personal interest payments in the US hit a record $506 BILLION in July
During the first 7 months of 2023, Americans paid a total of $3.3 TRILLION in personal interest. This is up a staggering 80% since 2021 and nearly above the entire 2022 total. The worst part? These numbers do NOT include interest on mortgage payments. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, FRED
Translation: If you exclude everything you need in life, inflation has been vanquished!
Source: Barchart
Hard landing vs. Soft landing assets
Source: BofA
From Wall Street to Main Street (aka workers want a bigger piece of the cake) => UAW members go on strike at three key auto plants after deal deadline passes
Half of US auto production is going offline tomorrow. - Thousands of United Auto Workers members went on strike at three key plants, after Detroit automakers failed to reach deals with the union by a Thursday night deadline. - The selected plants produce highly profitable vehicles for the automakers that largely continue to be in high-demand. About 12,700 workers – 5,800 at Stellantis, 3,600 at GM and 3,300 at Ford – will be on strike at the plants in total, the union said. The UAW represents about 146,000 workers across Ford, GM and Stellantis. Source: Goldman, CNBC
European Central Bank hikes rates to a record 4% as inflation risks outweigh economic gloom.
- The ECB just raised its key rates again today, by 25bp (main Refi rate at 4.50%, deposit rate at 4.00%) - Concerns around the underlying inflation dynamic appear to have overwhelmed the ongoing negative (and concerning) dynamic in Europe’s economic growth: "inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long. The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. In order to reinforce progress towards its target, the Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points." Source: Bloomberg
