Today is ECB day
What is the Taylor rule telling us when it comes to theoretical interest rates based on German data? Key interest rate should be at 10.9%, so 6.6% higher than current rate, according to Taylor Rule with German inflation at 6.4% & unemployment below NAIRU. Howeverm the spread between Taylor Rule rate & ECB key rate is lower than it has been since 2021. This might suggest that hike cycle could soon come to an end. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Goldman expects the resumption of student loan payments, a potential temporary federal government shutdown, and reduced auto production from a potential UAW strike to slow US GDP growth in 4Q23
Source graphic: GS
US CORE CPI LITTLE HOTTER THAN EXPECTED => A FED PAUSE IS LIKELY BUT NO RATE CUT ANYTIME SOON
Consensus expected a reacceleration of Headline inflation (+0.6% MoM after +0.2% in July) and a stabilisation of “core” inflation (+0.2% MoM after +0.16% in July). Key actual numbers are the following: ON A SEQUENTIAL BASIS (MoM) Headline inflation numbers are in-line with expectations (+0.6%). That is the biggest MoM since June 2022 and the second straight monthly increase in CPI...The energy index rose 5.6% in August after increasing 0.1% in July. There was a big turn-around in airline fares. They rose 4.9% after dropping 8.1% in each of the previous two months. But the gasoline index dominated with an increase of 10.6 percent in August, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month.
The continued strong demand for consumer services is why the Fed is unable to contain core inflation
According to Apollo, a record 22% of US consumers are planning to vacation in a foreign country. US households want to travel on airplanes, stay at hotels and eat out. The Kobeissi Letter: "That is why inflation in the non-housing service sector continues to be so high. No wonder credit card debt is skyrocketing". Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Apollo
Egypt inflation soars to 37.4% y/y in August as higher food costs add to currency angst
Another month, another record inflation number. Consumer prices in Egypt rose 37.4% in August compared with a year earlier. This is the highest number since 2010 -- higher than even the levels reached after the 2016 currency crisis. Note that food costs were up 71.4%
Steack-flation...Cattle Futures have once again closed at an all-time high. Steaks are going to be getting expensive!
Source: Barchart
SNB Policy rate at 2.00% by end-Q3 2023 - Survey
The following table shows economists’ forecasts for Switzerland’s benchmark central bank rate as surveyed by Bloomberg News from Sept. 1st to Sept. 7th. All figures are as of the end of the quarter.
Current SNB Policy Rate: 1.75%
Sourcce: Bloomberg
In case you missed it...
The credit default swap (CDS) prices for the US rose sharply during the small banks crisis back in spring, and then went down as the crisis subsided quickly. These prices have been rising steadily since early summer. US CDS are now above Spain, which is considered a higher risk country from a sovereign credit risk perspective. Source: Bloomberg
