Next FOMC rate hike probabilities:
No hike → 93% 25 bps hike → 7% Source: Game of Trades
Turkey inflation has reaccelerated despite sharply increased key interest rates.
Source: Bloomberg
If the Fed cuts rates next year, is that a good thing?
Source: Jeff Weniger
At least there is deflation somehwre...
The average price of a used #Tesla has declined 13 months in a row, moving from a record high of $67,900 in July 2022 to a record low of $41,574 in August 2023 (-39%). Source: Charlie Bilello
Are FED priorities shifting?
Mentions of inflation in the Fed's Beige book were the fewest since Jan 2022...Meanwhile, mentions of recession jumped to the highest level since at least 2018. The fact that there have been so many mentions of a word which as recently as 2020 and 2021 barely existed in the Beige Book vocabulary could give an indication what the Fed is most worried about today. Source: www.zerohedge.com
A BAZOOKA CUT BY THE NATIONAL BANK OF POLAND...
Is it the most dovish central bank around? Despite roughly 10% inflation, The National Bank of Poland cut rates by 75bp to 6%, versus expectations of a 25bp cut. - Poland’s central bank delivered a surprisingly steep interest rate cut in a bid to boost a slowing economy less than six weeks before a tightly-contested election, weakening the zloty and hammering banking stocks. - The decision to lower the benchmark rate by three quarters of a percentage point — the most since the fallout from the great financial crisis in 2009 — to 6% caught economists off guard. Most had predicted a quarter point reduction. - The decision takes on a political dimension coming so close to the Oct. 15 election and has left investors guessing at the next move, with some predicting that the easing cycle has ended as soon as it began. Source: Bloomberg
European stocks are becoming very disconnected from macroeconomic data
Source: Cheddar Flow, Bloomberg
6 Potential Problems for China’s Economy
Source: Barchart
