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Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. ## Straight from the Desk # **Syz** the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. - [All](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) - [United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) - [Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) - [Food for Thoughts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thoughts) - [markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/markets) - [Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) - [bitcoin](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bitcoin) - [Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) - [geopolitics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) - [AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) - [Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) - [gold](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/gold) - [europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) - [Commodities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) - [investing](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/investing) - [Technology](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technology) - [Crypto](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/crypto) - [technical analysis](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technical-analysis) - [nvidia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/nvidia) - [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) - [china](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/china) - [ETF](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/etf) - [earnings](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/earnings) - [Forex](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/forex) - [energy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/energy) - [banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/banking) - [magnificent-7](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/magnificent-7) - [Volatility](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/volatility) - [Alternatives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/alternatives) - [Real Estate](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/real-estate) - [apple](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/apple) - [google](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/google) - [emerging-markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/emerging-markets) - [Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) - [switzerland](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/switzerland) - [tesla](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/tesla) - [amazon](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/amazon) - [United Kingdom](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-kingdom) - [microsoft](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/microsoft) - [assetmanagement](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/assetmanagement) - [ethereum](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ethereum) - [russia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/russia) - [meta](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/meta) - [Healthcare](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/healthcare) - [Industrial-production](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/industrial-production) - [ESG](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/esg) - [Global Markets Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Turkey](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/turkey) - [bankruptcy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bankruptcy) - [inflation](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/inflation) - [brics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/brics) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-outlook) - [performance](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/performance) - [africa](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/africa) - [LLM](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/llm) - [Global](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global) - [Market News](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-news) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/weekly-equities) Show more 25 Oct 2023 - - - #### German business outlook is improving, feeding rebound hopes Ifo expectations index rose to 84.7 in Oct, up from 83.1 in Sep and way better than BBG consensus of 83.5. "What we see here does suggest that we see a certain stabilization,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest told BBG. “The German economy will be shrinking this year, but for the final quarter we do expect a stabilization, slight growth.” Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) ![German business outlook is improving, feeding rebound hopes](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698232367597.jpg) ![German business outlook is improving, feeding rebound hopes](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698232367597.jpg) 24 Oct 2023 - - - #### The Kobeissi Letter \>\>\> In fiscal year 2023, the US ran a deficit of $1.7 trillion If you add back the student loan forgiveness program adjustment, the deficit was actually $2 trillion. To put this in perspective, the annual US deficit is roughly equal to total individual income tax collected. It also means that the 2023 deficit is nearly 5 TIMES as large as corporate income taxes. The 2023 deficit as reported is ~25% larger than total Social Security outlays. Net interest was $659 billion and should soon pass the national defense budget. What's the long-term plan here? [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![The Kobeissi Letter \>\>\> In fiscal year 2023, the US ran a deficit of $1.7 trillion](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698084706911.jpg) ![The Kobeissi Letter \>\>\> In fiscal year 2023, the US ran a deficit of $1.7 trillion](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698084706911.jpg) 23 Oct 2023 - - - #### Startups are increasingly shutting down Rising rates, lower liquidity and reduced risk appetite are hurting funding. Difficult business conditions are eroding viability further. Source: Markets & Mayhem [#Food for Thoughts|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thoughts) [#Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) ![Startups are increasingly shutting down](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698004261012.jpg) ![Startups are increasingly shutting down](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698004261012.jpg) 20 Oct 2023 - - - #### Where do we stand in terms of percentile each year for the below aggregates in the US: \- US Government Debt to GDP = 98th percentile - SP500 Cyclically-adjusted-PE ratio = 99th percentile - US Consumer Price Index YoY change = 88th percentile Sounds like an interesting trifecta... Source: Crescat Capital [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![Where do we stand in terms of percentile each year for the below aggregates in the US:](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1697778758240.jpg) ![Where do we stand in terms of percentile each year for the below aggregates in the US:](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1697778758240.jpg) 20 Oct 2023 - - - #### Disinflationary forces are intensifying in Germany, at least for now German PPI deflation deepened with PPI down 14.7% YoY, the most since the start of the statistic in 1949. Even compared to the previous month, producer prices fell by 0.2%. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) ![Disinflationary forces are intensifying in Germany, at least for now](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1697793618261.jpg) ![Disinflationary forces are intensifying in Germany, at least for now](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1697793618261.jpg) 20 Oct 2023 - - - #### Is US inflation following the footsteps of the 1970s? Source: Game of Trades [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![Is US inflation following the footsteps of the 1970s?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1697749607489.jpg) ![Is US inflation following the footsteps of the 1970s?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1697749607489.jpg) 20 Oct 2023 - - - #### Italy budget deficit by Robin Brooks -\> Monthly data on Italy's fiscal balance are volatile, but the September 2023 budget deficit is the largest ever... [#Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) ![Italy budget deficit by Robin Brooks -\>](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1697691496682.jpg) ![Italy budget deficit by Robin Brooks -\>](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1697691496682.jpg) 20 Oct 2023 - - - #### 🌍Worldwide, many other countries have debt that is more than their GDP Japan consistently ranks among the top nations with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 200%. Source: Genuine Impact [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) ![🌍Worldwide, many other countries have debt that is more than their GDP](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1697691124623.jpg) ![🌍Worldwide, many other countries have debt that is more than their GDP](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1697691124623.jpg) ❮❮ [❮](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/160) [159](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/159) [160](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/160) [161](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/161) [162](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/162) [163](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/163) [❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/162) [❯❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/169?hsLang=en) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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