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Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. ## Straight from the Desk # **Syz** the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. - [All](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) - [United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) - [Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) - [Food for Thoughts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thoughts) - [markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/markets) - [Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) - [bitcoin](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bitcoin) - [Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) - [geopolitics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) - [AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) - [Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) - [gold](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/gold) - [europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) - [Commodities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) - [investing](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/investing) - [Technology](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technology) - [Crypto](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/crypto) - [technical analysis](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technical-analysis) - [nvidia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/nvidia) - [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) - [china](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/china) - [ETF](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/etf) - [earnings](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/earnings) - [Forex](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/forex) - [energy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/energy) - [banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/banking) - [magnificent-7](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/magnificent-7) - [Volatility](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/volatility) - [Alternatives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/alternatives) - [Real Estate](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/real-estate) - [apple](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/apple) - [google](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/google) - [emerging-markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/emerging-markets) - [Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) - [switzerland](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/switzerland) - [tesla](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/tesla) - [amazon](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/amazon) - [United Kingdom](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-kingdom) - [microsoft](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/microsoft) - [assetmanagement](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/assetmanagement) - [ethereum](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ethereum) - [russia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/russia) - [meta](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/meta) - [Healthcare](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/healthcare) - [Industrial-production](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/industrial-production) - [ESG](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/esg) - [Global Markets Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Turkey](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/turkey) - [bankruptcy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bankruptcy) - [inflation](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/inflation) - [brics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/brics) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-outlook) - [performance](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/performance) - [africa](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/africa) - [LLM](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/llm) - [Global](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global) - [Market News](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-news) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/weekly-equities) Show more 30 Oct 2023 - - - #### Here's the downside risk on gold. Either this longstanding correlation is broken or inflation is grossly understated and real rates remain negative Source: Henry Smith [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#gold](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/gold) ![Here's the downside risk on gold. Either this longstanding correlation is broken or inflation is grossly understated and real rates remain negative](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698597380676.jpg) ![Here's the downside risk on gold. Either this longstanding correlation is broken or inflation is grossly understated and real rates remain negative](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698597380676.jpg) 27 Oct 2023 - - - #### For now, the monetary policy transmission route of tightening US financial conditions are NOT reaching the economy... Indeed, an avalanche of US macro data on Thursday presented a positive blend of updates across growth (better), inflation (lower), and labor markets (looser/worse). - Economic Growth: Real GDP rose 4.9% in 3Q (consensus 4.5%) driven by strong demand across consumer and federal/state government, and inventories. However, a major contribution from inventories could in turn weigh significantly on growth in 4Q - Manufacturing: Orders for Durable and core capital goods also grew by more than expected... thanks to a massive surge in non-defense aircraft orders (so don't expect it to last). - Housing: Pending home sales rose 1.1% month over month in September, above expectations for a decline... but brace for October to be a bloodbath as mortgage rates re-accelerated. - Inflation: Core PCE prices component of the GDP report rose less than expected. - Labor: Initial and continuing jobless claims both increased by more than expected -- a positive for markets which are focused on labor market re-balancing (i.e., could benefit from less wage inflation). [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![For now, the monetary policy transmission route of tightening US financial conditions are NOT reaching the economy...](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698352809322.jpg) ![For now, the monetary policy transmission route of tightening US financial conditions are NOT reaching the economy...](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698352809322.jpg) 27 Oct 2023 - - - #### He probably has a point -\> "Key measures of inflation have reaccelerated in recent months...The implication for investors is that the Fed will keep rates high until nonfarm payrolls go negative, because that is what is needed to get inflation under control:" Apollo's Slok through Lisa Abramowitz [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#investing](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/investing) ![He probably has a point -\>](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698350678531.jpg) ![He probably has a point -\>](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698350678531.jpg) 27 Oct 2023 - - - #### US GDP grew 4.9% in Q3 QoQ annualized, way faster than +4.3% expected However, bond yields dropped in the afternoon session. This Bloomberg US GDP chart shows why. Indeed, US GDP growth in Q3 was mainly driven by private consumption & inventories. This may not last. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![US GDP grew 4.9% in Q3 QoQ annualized, way faster than +4.3% expected](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698351099355.jpg) ![US GDP grew 4.9% in Q3 QoQ annualized, way faster than +4.3% expected](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698351099355.jpg) 27 Oct 2023 - - - #### ECB's Lagarde: "Rate cuts weren't discussed, would be totally premature". Meanwhile, markets see the first ECB cut at April 2024 meeting. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ [#Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [#Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) ![ECB's Lagarde: ](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698350808868.jpg) ![ECB's Lagarde: ](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698350808868.jpg) 27 Oct 2023 - - - #### G7 vs. BRICS GDP Source: Visual Capitalist, Barchart [#Food for Thoughts|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thoughts) [#Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) ![G7 vs. BRICS GDP](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698261124845.jpg) ![G7 vs. BRICS GDP](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698261124845.jpg) 27 Oct 2023 - - - #### Welcome to Zombie Land "There are some serious problems in small-caps, especially in the US. Good luck paying interest without profits. Great chart via Soc Gen showing the distribution of stock forward P/E valuations in the MSCI Europe small cap and Russell 2000 index. Source: SG, Themarketear, Lance Roberts [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![Welcome to Zombie Land](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698262140771.jpg) ![Welcome to Zombie Land](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698262140771.jpg) 26 Oct 2023 - - - #### A Big drop in US flash PMI selling price gauge in October brings the FOMC 2% target into focus for the first time in three years Source: Chris Williamson [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![A Big drop in US flash PMI selling price gauge in October brings the FOMC 2% target into focus for the first time in three years](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698232731595.jpg) ![A Big drop in US flash PMI selling price gauge in October brings the FOMC 2% target into focus for the first time in three years](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1698232731595.jpg) ❮❮ [❮](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/159) [158](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/158) [159](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/159) [160](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/160) [161](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/161) [162](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/162) [❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/161) [❯❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/169?hsLang=en) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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