French CPI a little hotter than expected, rising 50bp in August
This was all due to energy (including higher regulated prices) and the end of the summer sales, but services inflation is still easing driven by transports and "other services". FRENCH CPI YOY NSA PRELIM ACTUAL 4.8% (FORECAST 4.6%, PREVIOUS 4.3%) FRENCH CPI MOM NSA PRELIM ACTUAL 1% (FORECAST 0.8%, PREVIOUS 0.1%) FRENCH HICP MOM PRELIM ACTUAL 1.1% (FORECAST 1%, PREVIOUS 0.0%) FRENCH CONSUMER SPENDING MOM ACTUAL 0.3% (FORECAST 0.3%, PREVIOUS 0.9%) Source: Bloomberg
The percentage of US workers quitting their jobs has moved down to 2.3%, the fewest since January 2021
The 1.5 job openings per unemployed person in the US is lowest since September 2021. Labor market continues to loosen... Source: Charlie Bilello
Treasury yields extend retreat from year’s highs after GDP data
Short-maturity yields led the move, with two-year yields declining about five basis points to around 4.85%, and most yields reached the lowest levels in more than two weeks. The
benchmark 10-year note’s yield touched 4.085%, the lowest level since Aug. 11.
Following downward revisions to the economy’s Q2 growth rate and related inflation measures, swap contracts tied to Fed meeting dates priced in slightly less than a 50% chance of another rate increase this year. Source: Bloomberg
Germany's inflation drops to 6.1% in Aug from 6.2% in July while Core inflation stagnates at 5.5%
BUT 6.1% headline reading was 10 basis points above market predictions as energy prices accelerated to 8.3% in Aug from 5.7% in Jul. Food price inflation slowed to 9% in Aug from 11% in July. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
EGGFLATION... With the price of eggs up +13% yesterday and +33% for the month, consumers are shelling out more and more for groceries
Thank you Hedgeye for the great cartoon Source: WallStreetSilver, WSJ
German wages rose at a record annual pace of 6.6 per cent in the second quarter, boosting consumer spending power but fuelling concerns about inflation being pushed up by rising labour costs
The increase, which compared with wage growth of 5.6 per cent in the previous quarter, was the highest since collection of the data began in 2008. It took German annual wage growth above the country’s consumer price inflation rate — 6.5 per cent in the period — for the first time since 2021. Source: FT
The demise of europe in one chart
Source: The Economist
Is the US job market finally cooling down?
The JOLTs report for July showed a huge drop in job openings (8.82mln vs the Street 9.5mln), and June was revised meaningfully lower to 9.16mln from previous 9.58mln Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
