This chart from Arch Economics sums up what's wrong with anyone pointing to unemployment as a sign the labor market is "solid."
If not for collapsing labor force participation since April, unemployment would've climbed to 4.9% today instead of 4.25%. Source: Parker Ross @Econ_Parker, Arch Global Economics
Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have shifted sharply lower after weaker-than-expected US jobs data.
Investors are now pricing in 62bps of rate cuts for the rest of the year, up from ~35bps before the report. The probability of a rate cut at Sep17 meeting has jumped to 92%. Source: Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
In the us, leverage is with the government, and less with companies and households.
Indeed, household debt outstanding as a share of US GDP is down over the past decade. Lowest since 2002. Source: BofA
US recession odds have fallen to an all-time low of 11%.
Source: Kalshi
US real GDP beat expectations (+3.0pct vs. +2.3pct according to consensus) but “Growth” is misleading.
Q2 real GDP +3.0% was inflated by a +5.6% boost from COLLAPSING imports (a subtraction in GDP math). Real economy: Investment -2.1% Exports -0.19% Consumer spending only +0.8% So ‘real economy’ is not collapsing but looks soft Source: The Coastal Journal
Economists who translate the CPI and PPI into the PCE expect monthly core inflation firmed in June. BEA reports this on Thursday.
Core PCE estimate: +0.29% (highest since February), which would push the year-over-year to 2.8% Headline PCE: +0.32% (y/y rises to 2.5%) Source: Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos
The US has got the softest inflation surprises on Earth...
Could this influence the FOMC tomorrow??? Source: Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno, Macrobond
June JOLTS job openings rate (white) down to 4.4% vs. 4.6% prior ... quits rate (blue) unchanged at 2%
Source: Bloomberg, Kevin Gordon
