The US MoneySupply hit an all-time high in April for the first time in three years.
After a brief hiatus, money printing is back. Invest accordingly. Source: Charlie Bilello
And now watch Japanese inflation tumble...
As highlighted by zerohedge, Japan does NOT actually have high CORE inflation; it does however have soaring rice prices which have skewed inflation expectations across the population as rice is a huge component of the overall CPI basket. Meanwhile the BOJ is scrambling to contain inflation - which has tumbled ex food with real wages near record lows - and is tightening conditions by raising rates even though it has zero control over food inflation. However, as a by product of its monetary policies and strong yen, the bond market is crashing every day now... This bond crash could eventually spread to Japan's banks and global markets, sparking a global crisis. They thus need to do something. Yesterday, Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) said they will consider tweaking the composition of its bond program for the current fiscal year, which could involve cuts to its super-long bond issuance... This was enough to trigger a big drop in bond yields and the yen, which both came as a relief for global markets. What is happening on rice (and its deflationary consequences) is anotehr positive development Source: zerohedge, Bloomberg, Macrobond
Recession fears are falling very quickly
On April 2nd, betting markets put the odds of a 2025 recession at nearly 70% Source: Bravos Research
In case you were wondering why European growth seemed abnormally strong in Q1.
Source: BCA
US Federal Government Spending as % of GDP...
1950s: 17% 1960s: 18% 1970s: 21% 1980s: 22% 1990s: 21% 2000s: 20% 2010s: 23% 2020s: 27% Source: Charlie Bilello
➡️ Our Global M2 proxy continues to point to supportive liquidity dynamics for risk assets in the weeks ahead.
➡️ The link between our Global M2 proxy and the Bitcoin continues to hold remarkably well and to point to still more short-term upside potential for the BTC. ➡️ Interestingly, our Global M2 proxy suggests a pause in the upward trend for Equities and Bitcoin in the second half of June (taking into account the 10-week lag). But the recent resuming of the M2 upward trend, if extended, would point to a resuming of positive market dynamic for July. NB: This is NOT an investment recommendation. Liquidity is one among the numerous indicators that need to be considered Source: Syz Research
Japan’s CPI pickup, rice price surge raise pressure on Ishiba
Bloomberg
Poland standard of living will surpass Japan this year.
Free market, hard work and entrepreneurial spirit do pay off. Congratulations Poland.
