4 Aug 2025
In the us, leverage is with the government, and less with companies and households.
Indeed, household debt outstanding as a share of US GDP is down over the past decade. Lowest since 2002. Source: BofA
31 Jul 2025
US recession odds have fallen to an all-time low of 11%.
Source: Kalshi
31 Jul 2025
US real GDP beat expectations (+3.0pct vs. +2.3pct according to consensus) but “Growth” is misleading.
Q2 real GDP +3.0% was inflated by a +5.6% boost from COLLAPSING imports (a subtraction in GDP math). Real economy: Investment -2.1% Exports -0.19% Consumer spending only +0.8% So ‘real economy’ is not collapsing but looks soft Source: The Coastal Journal
31 Jul 2025
Economists who translate the CPI and PPI into the PCE expect monthly core inflation firmed in June. BEA reports this on Thursday.
Core PCE estimate: +0.29% (highest since February), which would push the year-over-year to 2.8% Headline PCE: +0.32% (y/y rises to 2.5%) Source: Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos
30 Jul 2025
The US has got the softest inflation surprises on Earth...
Could this influence the FOMC tomorrow??? Source: Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno, Macrobond
30 Jul 2025
June JOLTS job openings rate (white) down to 4.4% vs. 4.6% prior ... quits rate (blue) unchanged at 2%
Source: Bloomberg, Kevin Gordon
30 Jul 2025
The IMF has upgraded its global growth forecast amid signs that Donald Trump’s trade war will do less damage to the world economy than initially feared, helped by a weaker US dollar
Source: FT
28 Jul 2025
"Never bet against America" said Warren Buffet. Innovation, free market and truly entrepreneurial spirit always win in the long run.
Source: Michel A.Arouet
