Treasury buybacks are accelerating
As highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter on X: " The US Treasury has bought back a record $138 billion in bonds YTD. This significantly surpasses the $79 billion repurchased during the entire 2024. This buyback program aims to boost liquidity and manage cash, as deficit spending continues to surge. In July, the Treasury said it would buy back 10- to 30-year Treasuries TWICE as often. As a result, Bloomberg’s measure of Treasury liquidity has materially improved over the last year. The world’s largest bond market can no longer function without intervention". Source: The Kobeissi letter, Bloomberg
Debt in the U.S. is spiraling faster than ever
On July 2nd, the national debt was $36.2 trillion. By September 4th, it hit $37.4 trillion. That’s $1.2 trillion in just two months over $21 billion added every day. At the same time, government spending is running at levels we used to only see during wars or crises like 2008 and Covid. The difference? Today’s economy is still called “strong.” Source: stockmarket.news on X
ADP: US private payrolls rose just 54K in August, down from 106K in July
That's below consensus estimates of 68k, that’s well below the 2010–2025 average of 148K. For context: the series hit a record 1.25M in Aug ’21 and plunged to -6.1M in April ’20.
The gap in 🇺🇸 consumer confidence is widening.
Wealthier households remain upbeat, while middle-income sentiment has slumped sharply since June — now looking closer to lower-income pessimism. It’s the middle class that’s starting to feel the squeeze.
More seniors than toddlers — a turning point in demographics
Slow, steady, and unstoppable—like a glacier—demographic shifts are quietly transforming economies and societies. UBS highlights how changing age structures, migration, and longevity are not just slow-moving backdrops but fundamental forces that will define markets, growth models, and policy choices for decades to come. A reminder that some of the most profound transformations happen quietly, in plain sight. source : ubs
⚠️ Way more more money is flowing out of Canada than coming in
Canada’s current account deficit reached C$21.16 billion in Q2 2025, AN ALL-TIME HIGH. Additionally, trade deficit in goods widened to a record C$19.6 BILLION. US tariffs seem to be hurting Canada's economy. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
Apollo: "Yes tariffs are inflationary - so too is a US dollar depreciation - that results in a coming inflation mountain"
See chart below inflation 2021 cycle relative to 1970s. Source: Apollo, Samantha LaDuc on X
What a headline by The Telegraph...
Source: The Telegraph
