Apollo's Sløk says the U.S. remains the most dynamic economy in the world — and he uses one simple chart to make his point: the number of new business applications.
Source: Apollo, HolgerZ
Watch out US CPI electricity today
Recent BBG article cites the recent 2x increase in electricity vs. broader inflation. Source: Bloomberg
Currency debasement is not a bug — it’s a feature of the fiat system.
Since Bretton Woods collapsed in 1971, not one of 152 countries has kept average inflation below 2%. Even Switzerland averaged 2.2%. Source: Global Markets Investors
China’s July exports top expectations, rising over 7%; imports record biggest jump in a year ‼️
▶️ Exports climbed 7.2% in July in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, customs data showed Thursday, exceeding Reuters-polled economists’ estimates of a 5.4% rise. ▶️Imports rose 4.1% last month from a year earlier, marking the biggest jump since July 2024, according to LSEG data. The data also indicated a recovery in import levels following June’s 1.1% rebound. Economists had forecast imports in July to fall 1.0%, according to a Reuters poll. ▶️On a year-to-date basis, China’s overall exports jumped 6.1% from a year earlier, while imports fell 2.7%, customs data showed. China’s trade surplus this year, as of July, reached $683.5 billion, 32% higher than the same period in 2024. Source: Augur Infinity @AugurInfinity, CNBC
Government jobs created/eliminated under Biden and Trump.
Probably too early to call it a trend change, but worth being highlighted. Source: Chart Eleva Capital, Bloomberg thru Michel A.Arouet
The chart below shows the number of companies founded in China each year.
Private entrepreneurialism fueling China’s economic rise has come to a full stop there. Time will tell what will be the consequences of a pivot to a state run economy again. Source: Michel A.Arouet, FT
ISM Services numbers yesterday clearly brought stagflation fears back to the table.
However, the Goldman Sachs Stagflation basket barely moved. Still, this one needs to be monitored closely as periods when this basket moves up are generally not good ones for US equities broader index. Source: Bloomberg, GS
S&P Equal Weight has outperformed S&P Cap Weight during easing cycles
Source: Jefferies thru RBC
