ISM Services numbers yesterday clearly brought stagflation fears back to the table.
However, the Goldman Sachs Stagflation basket barely moved. Still, this one needs to be monitored closely as periods when this basket moves up are generally not good ones for US equities broader index. Source: Bloomberg, GS
S&P Equal Weight has outperformed S&P Cap Weight during easing cycles
Source: Jefferies thru RBC
US Trade Deficit Plunges 16% in June to $60.2B – Lowest Since 2023!
Sharp import drop drives the narrowing, beating economist forecasts of ~$61-62B. Positive boost for GDP as net exports rise! Source: Andrea Lisi, CFA @Andrea_Texas_82, BEA
Nasty print on the US ISM services... sounds "stagflationary"
US ISM Services PMI Actual 50.1 (Forecast 51.5, Previous 50.8) US ISM Services Prices Paid Actual 69.9 (Forecast 66.5, Previous 67.5) US ISM Services Employment Actual 46.4 (Forecast -, Previous 47.2) US ISM Services New Orders Actual 50.3 (Forecast -, Previous 51.3) Source: ISM
An interesting view on europe by Gavekal
"The 15% tariff rate on US imports from the European Union will hit the old continent's exporting sector. But the broader economy can count on its domestic segment to mitigate the shock. Notably, the effect of the ECB’s interest rate cuts is becoming visible in a bank lending recovery across the eurozone". Source: Gavekal, Macrobond
Buffett explains how growth impacts valuation
Source: Brian Feroldi
Markets have fully priced three Fed rate cuts by the January meeting. That's a cut at three of the next four FOMC meetings.
Source: David Ingles @DavidInglesTV, Bloomberg
US Factory Orders Tumbled In June By The Most Since COVID
Source: zerohedge
