Apollo: "Yes tariffs are inflationary - so too is a US dollar depreciation - that results in a coming inflation mountain"
See chart below inflation 2021 cycle relative to 1970s. Source: Apollo, Samantha LaDuc on X
What a headline by The Telegraph...
Source: The Telegraph
2 similar headlines in the same week... but by the way, could the imf rescue them at the same time?
Can they really afford it???
US tariff revenue is skyrocketing
Annualized tariff revenues have hit a record $335 billion. This is more than triple the average seen in previous years. So far in August, collected customs and duties have reached $22.5 billion. Source: Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv
In case you missed it...
Prices paid component in Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index spiked in August... highest since February 2023. Source: Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon
Germany economic growth has been lagging behind other European countries.
And Chancellor Friedrich Merz is looking for excuses: “This task is bigger than some may have imagined a year ago – and I say that self-critically,” Merz admitted in a speech on Saturday in Osnabrück. “We’re not just facing a phase of economic weakness; we are in a structural crisis.” Germany’s economy contracted by 0.3% in Q2, more than expected, as consumer spending fell short. But the root of the malaise lies closer to home: While Merz enjoys the spotlight abroad, he’s been slow to deliver reforms at home; and that’s dragging down the national mood. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
⚠️US government spending is constantly rising
Social benefits now reflect 46% of all US government expenditures, an all-time high, excluding the 2020-2021 crisis. Social Security alone is accounting for 15.4%. This will only rise further as the US population is aging. Source: Global Markets Investor
The economic slump in Germany worsened in Q2.
GDP fell by 0.3% in Q2 QoQ, worse than the initial estimate of -0.1%, mainly due to a sharp drop in capital investment, which declined 1.4%. Consumer spending rose by 0.1% QoQ, contributed less than previously thought, while government spending rose 0.8% QoQ. The size of the German economy is currently still slightly below its 2019 level, ING's @carstenbrzeski has calculated: "It looks increasingly unlikely that any substantial recovery will materialise before 2026," he says. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
