"Never bet against America" said Warren Buffet. Innovation, free market and truly entrepreneurial spirit always win in the long run.
Source: Michel A.Arouet
In Germany, the latest Ifo Business Climate Index suggests the economy is holding up surprisingly well despite rising tariffs.
The index edged up from 88.4 in June to 88.6 in July – slightly below expectations (89.0). This marks the 7th consecutive monthly improvement, this month driven mainly by better assessments of current business conditions. However, underlying growth remains weak. According to Capital Economics, the survey results remain consistent w/a GDP contraction based on long-term historical patterns. That said, the Ifo has not been a reliable predictor of GDP in recent years. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
German business activity continued to grow marginally in July, though at a slightly slower pace than in June.
The German flash composite PMI fell to 50.3 points in July, down from 50.4 in June and below the 50.7 forecast in a Reuters poll. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
German benchmark index Dax jumps in AH trading after headlines the EU and the US are progressing toward an agreement that would set a 15% tariff for most products.
Member states could be ready to accept a 15% tariff and EU officials are pushing to have that cover sectors including cars. Steel and aluminium imports above a certain quota would face the 50% duty. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Anthony Pompliano:
"Technologists make prices go down, while the government makes prices go up".
The New Tenant Rent Index, which leads CPI Rent, declined by an unprecedented -9.3% Y/Y in Q2 (with a confidence interval of -17.1% to -1.5%).
Caution should be applied when interpreting these numbers as the series tends to experience very large revisions. In fact, all the negative readings in prior releases were subsequently revised away. However, it is probable to assume that disinflation in shelter CPI, which is ~30% of the Core CPI bucket, will help offset rising inflation concerns as a result of tariffs ✅ Source: Augur Infinity, Bloomberg
🔴 The US debt crisis is getting worse:
The US federal debt has hit $36.66 TRILLION, an all-time high. The public debt has skyrocketed $441 billion over the last 2 weeks after the statutory debt limit was extended. Over the last 2 years, the US debt has risen $5 TRILLION. Source: Global Markets Investor, Wolfstreet
🚨Earlier today, just before Bloomberg/CNBC/CBS reported that Trump wants to fire Powell asap, June US Producer Inflation came in below estimates
It came lower than expectations of all 50 forecasters in Bloomberg’s survey. ▶️ June US PPI annual inflation rises 2.3%, below expectations for 2.5%. ▶️ Core PPI inflation increased 2.6% Y/Y, compared to forecasts for a gain of 2.7%. THIS IS THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE SEPTEMBER 2024 The last time PPI was at this level, the Fed was cutting 50bps before the election. Source: Bloomberg, Geiger Capital
