Bloomberg frames the latest bond rally (with yields falling) in a wider context:
“Three years after a surge in inflation pummeled fixed-income markets all around the world, global bonds have finally re-entered bull market territory. Bloomberg’s Global Aggregate Index, which tracks returns on sovereign and corporate debt across developed and emerging markets, has surged more than 20% from its 2022 trough to its highest level since March 2022 amid a broad fixed-income rally. The latest leg higher came as cooling US labor data fueled bets the Federal Reserve would step up policy easing.” Source: Bloomberg, Mo El Erian on X
As highlighted by StockMarkets.news, the payroll downward revision was actually flagged by Powell weeks ago, sneaking it into a footnote in his Jackson Hole speech:
“Data available to date suggest that the level of non-farm payrolls will be revised down materially.” On Sept 9, that’s exactly what happened: -911,000 jobs erased. ➡️ The question now is was this worse than he expected, and does it warrant a 25 or 50 bps cut? Source: StockMarket.news
BLS preliminary benchmark revision comes in way worse than expectations at -911k jobs
That's -229k below consensus -682k and exceeds last year's -818k revision. Two years, 1.7 million phantom jobs erased. The labor market has been far weaker than anyone realized. Source: Matt Cooper @HedgeyeFins
⚠️ Auto Loan Delinquency Rate is at its highest level in 14 years
Source: Barchart
This chart shows how the SP500 has performed since 1980 when the Fed cut rates near all-time highs
On average, the index gained 3.3% over 3 months, 5.5% over 6 months, and 9.8% over the next year with markets higher 100% of the time after 1 year. Since 1980, Fed cuts near highs haven’t stopped bull runs. Source: StockMarket.News, Carson Investment Research
Key dates for France sovereign rating
Macron still needs to find a new PM who then needs to form a government who should submit its budget bill to parliament by the first Tuesday of October, which this year is October 7. Good luck... Source: French Debt Agency
⚠️ The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the 2025 preliminary benchmark revision to the Establishment Survey Data on Tuesday, September 9
The preliminary revision will cover the 12-month period through March 2025 before the final benchmark revision is reported within the employment report of February 2026. The chart below puts the revisions in perspective: ➡️ 2024 just delivered the biggest downward benchmark revision since 2008 nearly -800k jobs erased. ➡️ That’s exactly why the BLS revision matters: if 2025 takes another -550k to -950k hit, it won’t just mark back-to-back historic revisions. ➡️ It will prove the labor market was overstated for years, not months. Source: StockMarket.News, zerohedge
Buybacks are inflating earnings per share
By shrinking share counts, companies make profits look stronger on paper even when most firms show flat or declining growth. The top 10 companies are the only ones delivering real growth. Indexes keep climbing because of them, while the S&P 490 and the broader economy remain weak. This is one of the disconnect driving the market. Source: StockMarket.news
