Scott Bessent on tariffs:
"Tariffs can’t be inflationary because if the price of one thing goes up, unless you give people more money, then they have less money to spend on other things, so there is no net inflation.” Source: Geiger Capital
It has been a very quiet year... Can we expect the same in 2025??? (Clone)
Financial conditions are now even easier than previous records seen in late 2020 and 2021. In fact, this makes financial conditions easier than when the Fed cut rates to near 0% overnight in 2020. Meanwhile, the market is pricing in a 59% chance of another 25 bps Fed rate cut in December. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg
Inflation expectations have diverged from crude oil prices.
Source: The Daily Shot
US GOVERNMENT BORROWING EXPLODED IN OCTOBER
US budget deficit hit a STAGGERING $257.5 BILLION in October. This is up nearly 400% year-over-year versus $66.6 BILLION last year. This was also the 2nd highest deficit in the entire US history. Source: Global Markets Investor
Higher than expected US PPI + Powell's remarks yesterday sent rate-cut expectations notably lower - December less than 50-50 now...
Source: Bloomberg, www,zerohedge.com
Spoiler: France will continue to miss deficit targets.
It already has the highest tax burden in Europe, and there are no real structural reforms on the horizon. Source: Michel A.Arouet
⚠️US GOVERNMENT BORROWING EXPLODED IN OCTOBER⚠️
US budget deficit hit a STAGGERING $257.5 BILLION in October. This is up nearly 400% year-over-year versus $66.6 BILLION last year. This was also the 2nd highest deficit in the entire United States history. Mind-blowing numbers. Source: Global Markets Investor, zerohedge
It seems that the FED's neutral rate is higher.
Are they going to throw the towel on the 2% target? Source: Bloomberg, Lawrence McDonald
