😱 US JOB MARKET IS MUCH WEAKER THAN IT SEEMS 😱
Since January 2023, the number of jobs have been revised DOWN by A MASSIVE 471,000, the most since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Monthly nonfarm payrolls have been revised DOWNWARD in 14 out of the last 21 months. Source: Global Markets Investor
Core PCE is closer to 3 than 2
And ticked UP in the last month Source: Amy Niyom
Interesting point of view by Dr. Ed Yardeni:
"28 days since the 1st rate cut and 10-Yr. yield is up nearly +60bps. The 1995 Soft Landing rate cut cycle is almost a mirror image, as it also started its descent a few days later, a potential post-election outcome". There is one big difference though: the fiscal 6 debt situation in the US now vs. 1995... Source: Seth Golden @SethCL
Inflation surprises are picking up since Fed rate cut...
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
US employment numbers are out... and what a miss... 😱
🚨 It is indeed a confusing US jobs report with ugly headline numbers. US economy added just 12k jobs, according to Establishment Survey, far below consensus forecast of +100k and down from +223k in September. 🚨 Private payrolls were negative 28k, below the Street’s +70k forecast and down from +192k in September. 🌪 August was revised down by 81,000, from +159,000 to +78,000, 🌪 September was revised down by 31,000, from +254,000 to +223,000 👉 Odds of a 25 bps Fed cut next week increase per SOFR. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
UNEMPLOYMENT IN GERMANY SPIKED TO THE 2ND-HIGHEST IN 10 YEARS
The number of unemployed people in the world's 3rd largest economy has risen for 22 STRAIGHT MONTH. There are now 2.86 MILLION unemployed people in Germany, the most since the COVID CRISIS. Chart: Global Markets Investor, @AugurInfinity on X
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon just said the American 🇺🇸economy is still booming and inflation may not go away so quickly
Source: Evan on X
Just in 🔉 Reuters sources: China's leading legislative body weighs approval of new fiscal package exceeding 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion dollars) on November 8
Sources: China intends to approve raising new 10 trillion yuan debt through special treasury and local government bonds in upcoming years. fiscal plan to allocate 6 trillion yuan for local government debt and up to 4 trillion yuan for idle land and property acquisition. China could unveil enhanced fiscal measures if trump secures U.S. presidency.
