The price of eggs in the U.S. is at an all time high and continues to climb.
Due to the ongoing bird flu outbreak and inflation, egg prices sat at $4.15 in December, that was up from $3.65 in November. The unusually high prices come after the outbreak...
Will the US have to crash stocks to save bonds ???
Source: Michael A. Gayed
This is what happened to US government revenues from tariffs during Trump's first tradewar.
Source: DB
US growth is not a miracle, it is fully DEBT driven:
It took a MASSIVE $2.2 trillion in public debt to create $570 billion in GDP growth in 2024 (before revisions). In other words, it took $3.9 of debt to generate $1 of economic growth. Source: Global Markets Investor
The odds of the US economy entering a recession in 2025 have fallen to a fresh low of just 19%.
Since Election Day, the odds of the US economy entering a recession are down 35 percentage points, per @Kalshi .This comes after the preliminary reading of Q4 2024 GPD showed the US economy grew by 2.3%. Even as interest rates remain elevated and inflation rebounds, the US economy is growing. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
🚨What is happening with the eurozone economy?
Germany and France GDP fell 0.2% and 0.1% in Q4 2024. Italy's GDP was flat for the 2nd consecutive quarter. In effect, Euro-area economy did not grow in Q4 2024. Germany has contracted for 2 consecutive years in 2023 and 2024... Source: Bloomberg, Global Markets
🚨 US MACRO DATA & NFP RELEASED!
SOME SIGNS OF ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN BUT JOB MARKET AND CONSUMERS STAY STRONG 🚀 🔴 US GDP (Q4), 2.3% Vs. 2.6% Est (prev. 3.1%) Q4 GDP rose at an annualized rate of just 2.3% (lowest in 3 quarters), powered by a 4.3% surge in personal spending. Here are the details: - Personal consumption: 4.2% vs. 3.2% est. - Non-residential fixed investment: -2.2% (Q3: +4%) - Housing investment: +5.3% (Q3: -4.3%) - Exports: -0.8% (Q3: +9.6%) - Imports: -0.8% (Q3: +10.7%) 👉 Bottom-line: Consumption strong, but trade and business investment drag. 🔴PCE 4.2%, Exp. 3.2% (prev. 3.7%) Core PCE 2.5%, Exp. 2.5% (prev. 2.2%) 🔴US Jobless Claims, 207K Vs. 225K Est. (prev. 223K) 👉 Job market remains resilient ➡️ Overall, this still sounds like goldilocks. Growth is slowing down but remains resilient overall and the consumer is in good shape. Inflation risk remains but is not accelerating meaningfully with Core PCE in line with expectations.
BOC (Bank of Canada) ANNOUNCES AN END OF QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING
AND WILL GRADUALLY RESTART ASSET PURCHASES IN EARLY MARCH. Who will be next?
