After yesterday jumbo Fed rate cut (days after core CPI MoM reaccelerarting), who doesn't have this chart in mind???
The Second Wave of Inflation. This is what the Fed is thinking but isn't saying out loud. If you expand the dataset to the CPI's of Western economies, 87% of the time there's a second wave. Source. TS Lombard, Eric Hale
FED cuts rates by 50bp to 4.75%-5% range
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by a half percentage point Wednesday, in an aggressive start to a policy shift aimed at bolstering the US labor market.Committee sees another half-point of cuts in rest of 2024Policymakers penciled in an additional percentage point of cuts in 2025, according to their median forecast.
Soft landing? Hard landing? Or no landing?
Atlanta Fed Q3 Real GDP growth Nowcast model just hit 3%...
Safe is risky. #DF24
Source: Vala Afshar @ValaAfshar on X, marketoonist.com
The US yield curve continues to steepen.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries are the highest vs 2-year yields going back to 2022. Source: Lisa Abramowitz, Bloomberg
BREAKING: Prediction markets are now pricing-in a 48% chance of a 50 basis point Fed rate cut this week.
Odds of a 50 basis point rate cut have gone from 2% to 48% in just 5 days, according to Kalshi. This will be the first Fed policy decision without a 90%+ consensus since 2020... Source: The Kobeissi Letter
FED WILL CUT RATES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE 1ST TIME IN 4.5 YEARS Stocks usually fall ~15% within 12 months following the 1st cut if there is a recession
If no recession, stocks rise by >10%. Key caveat is, that we will know if there was a recession a few months after the cut. Source: Global Markets Investor
Market pricing now suggests a 50bps cut from the Fed is now base case (nearly 70% probability)
Source: Bloomberg, David Ingles
