Recession is the talk of the town again
In just 1 week, recession searches have hit record levels. Source: Game of Trades
The view from Apollo: Still no signs of a recession in the US
Source: Apollo
Before the euro, Greece, Italy, Spain were adjusting for their lower productivity via currency devaluations each year.
Within the European currency union the only avenue left is adjusting via real wages pushing many people into poverty. Source: FT, Michel A.Arouet
US banks are facing $517 Billion of Unrealized Losses - nobody wants interest rate cuts more than them
Source: Barchart, BofA
Tax Revenue vs. GDP for Major Countries
Source: Visual Capitalist
A very important chart which goes AGAINST hard landing scenario
"The source of the rise in the us unemployment rate is not job cuts but a rise in labor supply because of rising immigration. That is the reason why the Sahm rule doesn’t work. The Sahm rule was designed for a decline in labor demand, not a rise in immigration." - Torsten Slok (Apollo) Source: Mike Z. on X
Why the ECB should keep interest rates at the lowest level possible explained in one chart
The Euro zone is an equilibrium where high debt countries like Italy, France and Spain run big deficits. The ECB enables this by capping yields when these spike like they did in 2022. This policy is an implicit subsidy of high debt countries by low debt ones... Source: Robin Brooks
💥 Treasuries surge as traders bet on emergency Fed rate cut 💥
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