US Retail Sales increased 2.6% over the last year and this number is taken positively by markets
Retail sales came in better than expecting indicating that hashtag#consumers are still strong. Retail Sales month-over-month is the best number since January 2023. There are few caveats though: 1) After adjusting for higher prices they were down 0.4%. 2) Both of these numbers are well below the historical averages of +4.6% nominal and +2.0% real. 3) Previous numbers were revised downward Source: Charlie Bilello
The scariest China chart
Source: TS Lombard, Bloomberg, Win Smart
Interest rate futures are now pricing in 8 Fed rate cuts over the next 12 months, the most since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Market expectations have sharply shifted over the last week toward more cuts in anticipation of economic weakness. Over the last 60 years, every time the market expected 200 basis points of rate cuts, a recession in the US followed within several months. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Goldman Sachs
Global debt has officially reached $315 trillion
Source: IIF Global Debt
Torsten from Apollo: the reality is that firms on earnings calls talk less and less about recession
Source: Mike Z.
US July CPI inflation expectations:
1. Kalshi: 2.9% 2. TD Securities: 2.9% 3. UBS: 2.9% 4. Goldman Sachs: 2.9% 5. Citigroup: 3.0% 6. Morgan Stanley: 3.0% 7. Bank of America: 3.0% 8. Barclays: 3.0% The median July CPI expectation shows headline inflation at 3.0% and Core CPI inflation at 3.2%. If today CPI inflation comes in at 2.9% or lower, it will mark the first month with inflation under 3.0% since March 2021. Today's CPI report could solidify a hashtag#fed September rate cut. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Top monetary assets worldwide
Source: Porkopolis Economics
BREAKING: US July PP inflation falls to 2.2%, below expectations of 2.3%
Core PPI inflation falls to 2.4%, below expectations of 2.7%. This is the first drop in Core PPI YoY since December last year... In another constructive sign, PPI inflation is now at its lowest level since March 2024. A September hashtag#fed rate cut seems to be on its way. PPI numbers in a nutshell: - PPI 0.1% MoM, Exp. 0.2% - PPI Core 0.0% MoM, Exp. 0.2% - PPI 2.2% YoY, Exp. 2.3% - PPI Core 2.4% YoY, Exp. 2.6% Source: The Kobeissi Letter, US Department of Labor, Mike Z.
