% Increase over the last 5 years...
US Money Supply (M2): +42% Average US New Home Price: +44% "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." - Milton Friedman Source: Charlie Bilello
🚨CANADA INFLATION UNEXPECTEDLY RE-ACCELERATES.
May CPI +2.9% vs 2.6% expected. Did they cut rates too soon? Should the Fed worry about cutting too soon as well? Source: CTV News
CAUTION: In the US, Credit card interest rates have skyrocketed to a shocking 21.47%
Moreover, credit card debt has crossed the $1 trillion mark. And personal interest payments have risen to over $500 billion. To make things worse, excess savings have now run out Source: Game of Trades
BREAKING: The CBO has raised the US government's deficit forecast for Fiscal Year 2024 from $1.5 trillion to $1.9 trillion, or 6.7% of GDP.
This would be the highest deficit since 2021 when the deficit hit $2.8 trillion in response to pandemic lockdowns. By 2034, the deficit is expected to reach $2.9 trillion or 6.9% of GDP, totaling a whopping $22.1 trillion over the 2025-2034 period. The CBO projection also assumes that net interest will reflect over 50% of the budget deficit over the next decade. These numbers all assume no recessions and lower interest rates. What happens if rate cuts are delayed and a recession hits? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, CBO
The Citi US economic surprise index has fallen to about the most negative since 2022
h/t @daniburgz, Liz Abramowitz, Bloomberg
#moneydebasement
Source: Not Jerome Powell on X
#china #macro: Retail sales beat expectations
The strong growth in retail spending is particularly notable given the continued pressure on the property sector, with negative spillovers to household sentiment. It’s probably a relief to a government looking to reset the economy over time. Source: CNBC. Bloomberg, Mohamed El Erian
Probably a feeling shared by many households in developed economies and which (partly) explains the rise of populist parties
Source: Markets & Mayhem
