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While financial markets have priced in the peace deal, shipping markets have not... with Freight rates still 3x pre-war levels...
Source: zerohedge
US tech and tech-related stocks now reflect nearly 60% of the total stock market cap, an all-time RECORD.
At the same time, defensive stocks account for just 15%, an all-time LOW. Not even the 2000 Dot-Com BUBBLE saw such a divergence with tech peaking at ~50% while defensives remained above 20%. Has a new era of equity market performance come, or are defensive stocks going to catch up over the years? Source: Topdown charts, Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv
We've only had three Fed chairs experience their first "Fed Day" with markets open prior to Warsh yesterday.
All three times, the S&P was higher heading into the 2 PM rate decision only to finish in the red on the day. Warsh was no different as all main US equity indices finished in the red after his (rather hawkish) statement yesterday... Source: Bespoke
OVX (the VIX equivalent for Oil) has almost completely round-tripped the war spike, trading back near pre-conflict levels.
Markets have aggressively removed geopolitical risk premium, even though the region remains far from calm. Volatility is not screamingly cheap, but it offers a relatively inexpensive way to express a directional oil view or simply own gamma should tensions escalate again Source: TME
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