A landslide and sweep victory for Trump, this probably reduces uncertainty which is positive for stocks, BTC and the dollar.
Meanwhile, this could lead to more upward pressure on bond yields and a steepening of the yield curve. We also expect the "pro-republican" type of stocks to move higher. Pro-trump / republican seep victory sectors include Energy, Defense, Immigration-enforcement, For-profit education, Financials, some healthcare stocks, etc. Among the losers: Tech, Renewables, etc. From a geographical point of view, some US-friendly countries (India, Vietnam, etc.) might benefit from a Trump re-election. China and Mexico (and US stocks related to them) might suffer. Same for European autos exporters for instance. Source table: Bob Elliott
Romanian stock market index BET has outperformed the Nasdaq 100 over the past 5 years.
Source: Holgerz, Bloomberg
Yesterday's "SIZE" rotation put into perspective.
US small caps outperformed large caps by 4.5% on Thursday, a 6 standard deviation event and the 2nd biggest outperformance on record (trailing only the 10 sigma differential on October 10, 2008). This brutal rotation is taking place after a huge period of small-caps underperformance vs. large caps $IWM $SPY Source: Charlie Bilello, Steno Research
US manufacturing mega-boom in 2 images
Source: Science is Strategic, The Economist
🚨 🚨 🚨 HUGE SECTOR ROTATION OUT OF TECH AND INTO SMALL CAPS HAPPENING NOW 🚨 🚨 🚨
⬇ Nasdaq 100 $QQQ -1.0% ⬆ Russell 2000 $IWM +3.3% Source: Stocktwits
We're in a slow-motion melt-up according to Ed Yardeni
Source: Business Insider
Nvidia $NVDA P/E hardly changed last 18 months
Source: Mike Zaccardi, Goldman Sachs
In June, both ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services fell below 49.
Here are all months where both PMI readings were below 49 Source: Bespoke
