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7 Aug 2023

The Kobeissi Letter - Financial Events in 2023 So Far:

1. Mortgage rates pass 2008 highs at 7.2% 2. Credit card debt set to hit $1 trillion for first time ever 3. Regional bank crisis leads to 2nd and 3rd largest bank collapses in history 4. Fed raises interest rates to highest level since 2001 5. Debt ceiling crisis nearly leads to US default 6. US sees most bankruptcies since 2020 lockdown 7. Interest expense on US debt set to cross $1 trillion annually 8. Fitch downgrades US credit rating for first time since 2011 Yet, the S&P 500 is up an incredible 700 points this year. Is this the most resilient stock market in history? Source: The Kobeissi Letter

4 Aug 2023

MSCI World long-term performance by style

Quality outperforms by far with a lower standard deviation (NB: past returns are not a guarantee for future returns). Source: Invest In Assets | Stock Market Investing

2 Aug 2023

July cross-assets performance billboard by DB -> After a mixed performance in June, July was largely positive for assets across the board

Oil stole the show, as supply cuts spurred upward pressure on prices, and the AI excitement saw the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq extend their rally, both securing their fifth consecutive month of positive total returns. Fixed income took a hit in July, as central banks continued their hiking cycle (via HolgerZ)

2 Aug 2023

2023 has been so far the mirror image of 2022 in terms of #assets returns 2022/2023/2022-23 Combined Total Returns...

$NVDA: -50%/+220%/+59% $AAPL: -26%/+52%/+12% $MSFT: -28%/+41%/+1% $SPY: -18%/+21%/-1% $QQQ: -33%/+45%/-3% $META: -64%/+165%/-5% $GOOGL: -39%/+50%/-8% $AMZN: -50%/+59%/-20% $TSLA: -65%/+117%/-24% $NFLX: -51%/+49%/-27% Source: Charlie Bilello

2 Aug 2023

Asset class billboard updated as of 31/7/2023

Source: Charlie Bilello

31 Jul 2023

Asset size

Source: JC Parets

27 Jul 2023

Latest outlook from IMF shows expectation for global growth this year up to +3% year/year

2024 growth also at +3% … expectation is for U.S. to grow 1.8% this year, 0.2%-point increase from April; China expected to grow 5.2%, unchanged from April. Source: Bloomberg, Liz Ann Sonders

24 Jul 2023

J.P. Morgan Kolanovic & Dubravko -> The recent rise in market cap concentration has been the steepest on record based on >60 years of history

Even narrower leadership than seen during the TMT Bubble. Source: Seth Golden

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